***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 47.1 46.9 45.8 100.5 58.0 49.4 30.3 41.3 53.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 46.6 52.9 46.4 110.4 64.3 55.3 29.2 40.9 54.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 36.0 52.3 43.0 95.6 54.8 46.9 36.1 48.5 62.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 64.7 58.5 49.4 91.3 51.8 44.8 42.1 56.8 73.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 35.4 45.9 43.4 85.8 47.2 41.7 35.7 48.1 62.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 33.2 42.9 39.6 80.4 43.6 39.8 35.4 47.5 61.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 43.5 49.3 46.3 111.1 64.7 55.5 28.3 38.7 50.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 82.3 70.2 48.2 87.9 48.4 44.5 52.7 72.2 94.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 49.8 41.8 43.5 85.8 47.3 42.0 32.2 43.7 56.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 58.9 50.0 46.2 86.1 47.1 42.5 39.6 52.0 65.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 36.1 46.6 41.6 82.7 44.9 40.5 37.4 50.6 65.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 63.4 52.2 42.9 85.4 47.2 43.4 39.7 55.0 73.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 37.5 47.3 41.3 79.4 42.5 40.0 39.2 54.3 71.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 47.9 66.5 51.7 94.6 53.9 46.9 49.0 63.1 78.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 64.4 61.6 52.4 95.9 56.0 47.4 37.8 54.5 74.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 28.8 39.7 40.7 80.9 43.7 40.1 30.6 45.7 63.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 44.9 55.3 48.6 117.4 68.2 60.2 29.2 40.4 53.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 43.3 58.3 50.0 91.1 50.8 45.3 43.8 57.5 72.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 51.7 55.2 45.4 106.1 61.8 53.2 33.8 45.6 59.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 72.7 69.4 64.6 96.4 54.4 49.6 47.0 64.6 84.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 51.1 44.5 42.8 89.2 50.0 43.5 32.7 44.5 57.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 50.5 59.4 49.7 114.1 66.4 59.2 32.8 45.1 58.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 50.6 50.3 44.5 99.8 57.8 49.9 34.5 45.0 56.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 38.1 54.7 46.5 90.9 51.2 44.7 39.7 53.7 69.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 28.3 45.3 49.4 97.2 55.5 48.1 28.5 40.7 55.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 56.6 50.2 47.3 90.2 50.7 47.1 35.3 49.6 65.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 48.2 48.3 48.2 101.2 58.4 50.2 31.5 42.3 54.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 33.6 47.7 45.4 87.3 49.5 43.0 34.2 48.3 64.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 95.1 88.9 55.2 94.9 53.5 47.9 65.7 84.8 105.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 45.9 48.9 45.2 105.3 61.2 52.4 29.2 40.3 53.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------