***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 9999.0 3.6 4.2 1.1 69.0 64.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 2.1 2.9 3.6 0.9 66.3 63.1 0.7 1.8 2.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 4.8 5.0 3.9 1.1 69.7 65.6 2.6 3.7 4.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.3 74.2 68.9 -2.8 -1.6 -0.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 2.5 2.8 2.5 1.3 73.2 68.2 0.4 1.4 2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 2.0 2.4 1.0 1.3 76.1 70.2 -0.4 0.7 1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 2.1 2.8 3.6 0.9 66.6 63.1 0.7 1.8 2.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 -2.1 -2.0 1.5 1.2 71.2 67.3 -4.5 -3.4 -2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 3.3 3.6 3.2 1.3 72.9 67.8 1.2 2.2 3.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 2.7 2.8 2.0 1.2 70.7 66.7 0.6 1.6 2.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 2.5 2.7 2.3 1.3 73.3 68.5 0.2 1.2 2.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.3 73.0 68.6 -0.7 0.4 1.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 2.1 2.4 1.7 1.3 73.6 68.7 -0.1 0.9 1.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 3.3 3.3 2.8 1.0 68.8 65.5 1.4 2.3 3.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 2.9 3.3 2.5 1.3 76.2 70.2 0.7 1.7 2.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 3.3 3.7 2.0 1.4 75.4 70.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 2.0 2.6 3.4 0.8 65.4 62.1 0.7 1.7 2.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.1 69.1 65.8 -1.0 -0.1 0.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 2.2 2.9 3.6 0.9 67.0 63.8 0.9 1.9 2.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 -1.2 -1.2 0.3 1.2 69.4 65.9 -3.8 -2.6 -1.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 3.0 3.2 3.8 1.2 71.7 66.8 0.9 1.9 2.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 1.7 2.2 3.4 0.8 65.2 62.2 0.4 1.4 2.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 2.7 2.7 3.6 1.0 68.0 64.9 0.9 1.8 2.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 9999.0 2.7 2.7 1.1 70.0 66.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 27 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 3.1 3.3 2.9 1.1 70.7 66.1 1.1 2.1 3.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 2.3 2.6 1.7 1.2 72.7 68.2 0.2 1.2 2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 3.5 3.7 3.5 1.1 69.9 65.4 1.1 2.3 3.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 1.7 2.1 2.3 1.4 76.7 70.8 -0.6 0.4 1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 68.8 65.5 -1.7 -0.5 0.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 3.3 3.3 3.8 0.9 67.3 63.8 1.0 2.2 3.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------