***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 5.4 7.2 1.8 73.3 71.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 4.5 4.8 6.4 1.5 70.2 69.0 1.4 2.9 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 6.9 7.3 7.1 1.8 74.0 72.4 3.7 5.2 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 1.9 2.9 5.1 2.3 81.6 78.8 -1.9 -0.3 1.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 5.0 5.9 6.0 2.4 81.0 78.4 1.1 2.7 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 4.6 6.8 4.4 3.0 89.9 85.7 0.3 1.9 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 4.7 4.9 6.4 1.6 71.5 70.3 1.5 3.0 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 0.2 1.2 4.7 2.4 80.4 77.6 -4.0 -2.3 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 5.8 6.6 6.5 2.4 81.2 78.7 2.0 3.5 4.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 5.3 6.1 5.4 2.3 79.3 76.7 1.6 3.2 4.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 5.1 6.2 5.7 2.4 81.5 78.5 1.2 2.8 4.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 4.3 5.5 5.3 2.6 83.9 80.6 0.1 1.7 3.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 4.8 6.5 5.5 3.1 88.2 84.5 0.6 2.2 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 5.4 6.0 6.4 2.2 77.8 75.7 2.6 3.9 5.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 5.2 6.1 5.9 2.1 81.1 78.4 1.6 3.1 4.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 6.2 7.9 5.6 2.9 87.2 83.8 1.9 3.5 5.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 4.5 4.8 6.1 1.5 70.7 69.5 1.6 3.0 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 3.2 3.9 4.9 2.4 79.7 77.1 0.3 1.5 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 4.6 4.9 6.5 1.5 70.6 69.3 1.7 3.2 4.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 1.5 2.7 3.7 2.8 82.7 79.9 -3.1 -1.2 0.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 5.2 5.9 7.1 2.2 78.6 76.6 1.6 3.1 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 4.1 4.4 6.2 1.5 71.5 70.0 1.4 2.7 3.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 4.7 5.0 6.6 1.6 72.1 70.5 1.8 3.2 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 4.5 5.1 6.1 2.2 77.7 75.4 1.4 2.7 4.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 5.4 5.8 6.2 1.9 74.8 72.8 1.9 3.4 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 5.1 6.7 5.1 2.8 85.5 81.7 0.8 2.5 4.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 5.7 6.2 6.7 2.0 74.8 73.1 1.5 3.3 5.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 4.3 5.7 5.8 2.6 85.8 82.7 0.0 1.6 3.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 3.3 4.3 4.3 2.6 81.0 78.2 -0.6 1.0 2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 5.1 5.3 6.7 1.6 71.0 69.8 1.8 3.4 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------