***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 9999.0 3.4 5.8 1.5 68.0 63.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 4.2 3.8 5.2 1.3 66.5 62.5 0.5 2.1 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 6.0 5.8 5.4 1.4 67.5 63.5 2.5 4.1 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 1.4 1.5 3.4 1.6 70.2 65.9 -2.5 -0.7 1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 3.3 3.3 3.9 1.6 69.2 65.0 0.1 1.6 3.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.4 68.8 65.0 -0.3 1.0 2.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 4.0 3.7 5.2 1.3 67.3 62.9 0.5 2.1 3.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 -1.1 -1.4 2.7 1.2 65.2 62.6 -4.5 -2.9 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 4.2 4.1 4.5 1.6 68.7 64.3 1.0 2.5 3.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 3.4 3.2 3.4 1.3 66.1 62.8 0.5 1.9 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 3.1 3.0 3.6 1.5 68.3 64.7 0.1 1.5 2.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 2.4 2.1 3.2 1.3 66.0 63.2 -0.5 0.9 2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 2.7 2.3 2.8 1.3 65.6 62.9 -0.2 1.1 2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 3.3 3.9 4.0 1.1 63.2 59.9 1.4 2.8 4.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 3.1 3.3 3.8 1.6 72.2 67.5 0.4 1.7 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 3.7 3.6 3.1 1.5 68.2 64.7 0.9 2.2 3.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 3.8 3.4 4.9 1.2 65.8 61.5 0.7 2.1 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 1.7 1.3 2.8 1.1 63.1 60.8 -0.8 0.4 1.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 4.0 3.6 5.1 1.2 65.9 62.1 0.7 2.2 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -1.4 -1.1 1.5 0.9 60.5 59.7 -3.8 -2.1 -0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 4.2 4.1 5.2 1.6 68.8 64.4 0.7 2.3 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 3.3 2.8 4.8 1.0 63.4 59.8 0.3 1.7 3.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 3.5 3.2 4.9 1.2 65.1 61.6 0.7 2.1 3.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 3.1 2.9 4.0 1.3 65.0 61.7 0.5 1.8 3.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 3.9 3.8 4.3 1.5 68.8 64.3 1.0 2.3 3.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 2.8 2.4 2.8 1.1 64.6 62.3 0.3 1.4 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 5.2 5.0 5.1 1.5 68.1 63.6 0.9 2.9 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 2.2 2.3 3.6 1.6 71.3 66.9 -0.7 0.6 1.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 0.9 1.3 2.2 1.0 61.2 59.7 -1.6 0.2 1.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 4.5 4.2 5.3 1.3 67.0 62.9 0.8 2.5 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------