***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 3.9 3.1 1.1 62.2 59.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 1.8 2.3 2.6 1.0 62.2 59.4 -0.7 1.1 2.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 3.6 4.2 2.9 1.1 62.7 59.5 1.2 2.9 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 -4.6 -0.9 0.9 1.0 61.9 58.9 -4.3 -2.3 -0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 -1.0 1.7 1.2 1.0 60.7 58.0 -0.8 0.7 2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 -1.9 0.7 -0.4 0.7 58.7 56.9 -1.6 -0.1 1.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 1.9 2.3 2.5 1.0 61.7 58.9 -0.5 1.2 2.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -3.5 -3.2 0.2 1.0 60.4 58.1 -6.1 -4.3 -2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 2.0 2.3 1.8 1.0 60.8 58.1 -0.2 1.4 2.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.9 59.9 57.8 -1.0 0.5 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.0 60.6 58.0 -1.2 0.3 1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 60.3 57.8 -1.9 -0.5 0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 -1.6 0.8 0.3 0.7 57.7 56.0 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 2.8 2.1 1.5 0.9 60.8 58.9 -0.2 1.2 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 1.7 2.3 1.5 1.2 64.3 60.7 -0.4 1.1 2.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 -0.6 1.9 0.6 0.9 59.8 57.4 -0.4 1.0 2.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 1.6 2.0 2.4 1.0 61.9 59.0 -0.7 0.9 2.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 -0.8 -0.6 0.2 0.9 59.5 57.9 -2.6 -1.3 -0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 2.8 2.2 2.6 1.1 62.7 59.7 -0.6 1.0 2.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 -3.3 -3.2 -1.0 0.9 59.1 57.5 -6.1 -4.2 -2.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 1.8 2.3 2.6 1.1 61.7 58.7 -0.6 1.1 2.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 1.1 1.6 2.5 1.0 62.3 59.2 -1.1 0.5 2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 2.6 1.9 2.5 1.1 62.7 59.9 -0.8 0.8 2.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 1.8 1.1 1.5 1.0 61.3 59.1 -1.1 0.2 1.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 -0.5 2.4 1.7 1.1 62.1 59.2 -0.2 1.3 2.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.7 57.5 56.1 -1.0 0.4 1.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 2.3 2.8 2.4 1.1 62.0 58.9 -0.5 1.5 3.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.0 62.5 59.3 -1.8 -0.4 1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.9 59.6 58.1 -3.5 -1.6 0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 2.3 2.8 2.8 1.0 62.3 59.4 -0.3 1.5 3.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------