***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 9999.0 12.1 13.1 1.0 61.5 60.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 12.0 12.4 12.6 0.6 57.6 57.2 10.0 11.7 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 12.9 13.9 13.4 1.1 62.4 61.7 10.7 12.6 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 8.0 8.1 11.4 1.7 69.9 68.6 4.1 5.9 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 14.2 14.0 12.4 1.4 65.0 64.0 10.5 12.3 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 12.2 13.3 11.2 1.3 63.2 62.4 9.6 11.7 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 91 9 100 11.8 12.1 12.4 0.5 56.2 55.9 9.7 11.5 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 4.9 5.3 11.0 0.8 58.2 57.8 2.7 4.4 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 47 53 100 14.7 14.4 13.2 1.2 63.4 62.6 10.8 12.8 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 12.6 13.2 12.0 0.9 59.0 58.5 10.3 12.2 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 13.1 14.1 12.3 1.1 62.3 61.5 10.6 12.6 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 12.7 13.6 11.7 1.0 61.2 60.5 10.3 12.3 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 12.9 13.7 11.9 0.9 60.1 59.5 10.4 12.5 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 13.4 13.8 12.9 0.7 57.1 56.8 11.1 13.0 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 13.2 13.3 12.4 1.7 71.7 70.3 9.8 11.3 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 13.5 14.6 12.1 1.2 63.2 62.3 10.9 13.0 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 11.5 11.6 11.9 0.3 53.8 53.7 9.6 11.2 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 11.5 11.6 11.3 0.4 54.0 54.0 9.4 11.2 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 12.4 13.0 12.9 0.8 59.6 59.1 10.3 12.1 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 9.7 9.7 9.4 0.3 52.9 52.9 7.3 9.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 12.9 13.9 13.5 1.2 63.0 62.3 10.6 12.5 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 12.2 12.3 12.2 0.4 55.3 54.9 10.2 11.8 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 12.6 13.4 13.3 1.0 61.7 61.0 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 13.5 14.0 12.8 0.7 57.4 57.1 11.1 13.1 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 12.0 12.9 12.1 1.1 63.0 62.3 9.8 11.6 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 12.7 13.7 11.2 1.1 63.3 62.4 10.3 12.2 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 12.4 13.1 12.5 0.8 59.6 59.2 10.2 12.1 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 12.9 13.1 12.1 1.9 71.5 70.1 9.8 11.2 12.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 90 10 100 8.9 8.9 10.6 0.3 52.5 52.6 6.6 8.6 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 90 10 100 12.0 12.6 12.9 0.8 59.4 58.9 9.9 11.7 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------