***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 11.2 11.8 1.3 65.6 60.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 10.9 12.1 11.4 1.3 65.4 60.6 7.9 10.1 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.1 13.1 11.9 1.2 64.6 60.1 8.9 11.2 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 6.4 7.7 10.2 1.4 65.9 61.5 3.3 5.5 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.9 10.6 1.2 63.0 59.5 9.1 11.3 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.7 12.4 10.0 1.1 62.8 59.9 8.8 10.8 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.7 11.9 11.3 1.3 65.8 61.0 7.8 9.9 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 4.4 4.7 9.7 0.9 60.0 58.3 2.1 3.8 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.7 13.2 11.1 1.1 61.8 58.6 9.5 11.7 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.8 12.2 10.3 0.9 60.1 57.9 9.0 11.0 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.4 13.1 10.5 1.1 62.2 59.4 9.4 11.5 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.8 10.3 1.0 61.0 58.9 9.3 11.4 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.7 10.1 1.0 60.9 58.7 9.4 11.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 8.8 13.4 11.2 1.0 61.0 57.7 9.2 11.8 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 10.9 10.9 10.5 1.6 69.5 64.5 7.5 9.1 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.8 13.5 10.4 1.1 62.7 59.7 9.8 12.0 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.4 11.4 11.1 1.2 65.1 60.2 7.5 9.6 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 11.0 11.1 9.9 0.8 58.5 56.8 8.2 10.2 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.4 12.5 11.7 1.3 65.1 60.3 8.2 10.5 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.1 8.0 0.6 56.9 56.3 6.1 8.2 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.3 13.0 11.5 1.1 63.2 59.3 9.1 11.3 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 11.0 12.0 11.2 1.2 64.1 59.3 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.4 12.3 11.9 1.3 64.3 59.7 8.3 10.5 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 13.0 13.5 11.2 1.0 61.1 58.1 9.7 12.0 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.1 12.2 10.5 1.3 65.9 61.0 8.2 10.3 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.6 9.9 0.9 61.3 59.4 8.9 10.6 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.9 13.2 11.2 1.3 66.0 61.0 8.9 11.1 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.2 11.2 10.5 1.4 66.4 62.1 7.9 9.5 11.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.7 9.1 0.7 57.2 56.2 5.6 7.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 10.9 12.0 11.6 1.3 65.5 60.7 8.0 10.1 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------