***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 11.0 8.6 1.0 61.7 58.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 10.7 9.7 8.3 0.9 61.0 58.0 6.3 8.4 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 6.9 11.0 8.7 1.0 61.1 58.2 7.3 9.5 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 4.6 5.1 6.9 0.9 60.9 57.7 1.2 3.6 5.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 6.8 10.6 7.4 0.9 59.9 57.2 7.2 9.4 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.6 6.7 0.8 58.7 56.9 6.5 8.6 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 5.9 9.5 8.1 0.9 61.0 58.0 6.3 8.2 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 0.2 3.5 6.7 0.9 59.5 57.2 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 7.5 11.5 8.0 0.9 59.9 57.3 7.8 10.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 10.2 10.5 7.3 0.9 59.5 57.2 7.0 9.3 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.9 7.4 0.9 59.5 57.1 7.3 9.6 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.7 7.3 0.9 59.3 57.2 7.2 9.5 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.7 10.8 7.0 0.8 58.9 57.0 7.5 9.7 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.0 11.5 8.1 1.0 60.3 57.9 7.5 10.0 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.6 9.2 7.2 1.0 62.5 58.8 5.6 7.7 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.3 7.2 0.9 59.2 57.0 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 10.1 9.0 7.9 0.9 60.5 57.6 5.8 7.8 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.5 8.8 7.0 0.9 59.8 57.5 5.8 7.7 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 11.2 10.1 8.5 1.0 61.0 58.1 6.4 8.6 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 8.8 7.5 5.4 0.9 59.7 57.5 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 7.0 11.0 8.4 1.0 60.5 57.7 7.5 9.7 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 10.9 9.7 8.1 0.9 60.6 57.7 6.2 8.4 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 11.0 9.9 8.7 1.0 61.0 58.2 6.4 8.6 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 7.5 11.6 8.1 1.0 60.4 57.9 7.8 10.2 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 6.4 10.1 7.4 1.0 61.9 58.6 6.8 8.7 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.8 10.0 6.9 0.8 59.3 57.5 7.0 9.0 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 7.2 11.1 8.0 1.1 62.0 58.8 7.6 9.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.9 7.2 0.9 60.7 57.6 6.1 8.4 10.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 3.3 7.4 6.4 0.9 59.8 57.6 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 10.7 9.7 8.5 1.0 61.2 58.2 6.4 8.4 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------