***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 10.6 9.9 0.8 63.0 60.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.2 9.5 0.7 61.2 58.7 8.0 9.3 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 11.0 11.5 10.1 0.8 63.0 60.0 9.0 10.5 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 4.7 5.6 8.3 1.0 65.7 61.8 2.9 4.3 5.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 10.8 11.4 8.9 0.8 63.1 59.8 8.9 10.3 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.8 8.1 0.8 62.8 59.5 8.3 9.7 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.7 10.0 9.4 0.6 60.7 58.3 7.8 9.2 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 3.6 3.8 8.0 0.6 60.0 57.8 2.1 3.1 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 11.4 12.0 9.5 0.8 62.2 59.2 9.4 10.9 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.7 11.0 8.7 0.6 60.1 57.8 8.7 10.2 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 11.1 11.7 8.9 0.8 62.3 59.2 9.0 10.6 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.0 11.4 8.6 0.7 61.6 58.8 8.9 10.4 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.5 8.5 0.7 61.3 58.6 9.0 10.5 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.7 9.5 0.6 59.8 57.7 9.4 10.9 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 9.0 10.0 8.7 1.0 68.1 63.8 7.4 8.7 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.6 12.2 8.7 0.8 62.8 59.5 9.5 11.0 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.5 9.1 0.5 59.2 56.8 7.5 8.8 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 9.4 9.4 8.3 0.5 57.6 56.1 7.6 8.8 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.2 10.7 9.8 0.7 62.1 59.4 8.3 9.7 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 8.0 8.0 6.5 0.4 56.8 55.8 6.1 7.4 8.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.0 11.6 9.9 0.8 62.5 59.5 9.0 10.5 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.1 9.3 0.5 59.4 57.0 8.0 9.4 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.8 10.1 0.8 62.8 59.9 8.3 9.7 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.2 9.5 0.6 60.1 57.8 9.9 11.4 12.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 10.0 10.6 8.7 0.8 63.7 60.4 8.1 9.5 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.5 11.0 8.2 0.8 62.8 60.0 8.7 10.0 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 10.8 11.4 9.3 0.8 62.7 59.7 8.9 10.3 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 9.4 10.2 8.7 1.0 66.5 62.4 7.8 9.0 10.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 7.5 7.5 7.6 0.4 56.6 55.6 5.5 6.9 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 9.9 10.4 9.8 0.7 62.1 59.4 8.1 9.4 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------