***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-11.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 9999.0 25.8 26.9 215.5 87.4 80.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 19.7 28.9 23.3 197.9 85.2 80.2 4.3 8.6 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 18.2 28.6 25.4 205.0 86.5 79.9 3.8 7.8 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 23.9 41.2 26.6 209.4 88.0 79.8 4.1 9.2 17.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 17.3 28.3 27.3 208.8 87.3 81.3 3.2 6.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 13.4 23.9 26.7 246.2 90.2 80.4 3.2 6.1 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 17.5 26.8 24.3 206.0 86.0 81.0 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 30.2 53.1 29.9 214.3 88.0 82.1 4.7 11.0 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 15.7 23.6 26.4 200.7 86.1 80.3 3.2 6.6 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 16.5 25.6 28.8 204.7 86.8 81.1 3.5 7.1 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 15.9 27.5 27.9 224.7 88.7 82.5 3.2 6.5 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 16.0 29.5 27.7 227.1 89.3 82.3 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 17.8 32.9 27.1 232.5 89.5 81.8 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 21.0 29.9 26.6 186.5 84.3 78.6 5.4 10.0 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 17.5 29.9 25.1 210.5 87.9 76.9 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 17.3 32.1 27.7 240.4 90.3 82.5 3.6 7.5 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 19.3 27.4 22.2 188.6 83.8 79.3 3.7 7.8 14.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 18.5 27.7 29.8 192.1 85.7 79.6 4.0 8.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 18.1 27.8 23.4 196.3 85.2 80.1 3.1 7.0 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 24.5 37.2 36.2 193.6 86.3 80.5 5.0 10.1 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 16.2 25.7 27.1 212.6 87.3 81.0 3.7 7.0 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 17.9 25.8 22.8 187.9 84.1 79.1 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 18.9 28.0 23.6 190.4 84.8 79.0 3.8 7.9 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 17.4 26.6 27.2 194.2 85.6 79.1 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 20.0 33.3 29.3 219.1 87.8 82.8 3.1 7.2 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 16.6 29.3 25.6 219.5 88.0 78.9 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 16.0 25.8 28.7 221.1 87.9 82.7 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 15.4 29.0 26.3 227.9 90.0 79.9 2.9 6.2 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 27.4 40.6 31.3 186.6 85.0 78.7 5.6 11.6 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 16.9 25.8 24.4 204.9 86.1 80.8 3.5 7.1 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------