***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2012.-18.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 20.5 16.3 133.4 73.9 59.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.0 16.1 16.4 129.6 72.9 58.0 3.4 7.2 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 20.7 23.4 15.9 134.6 74.1 60.1 4.8 10.0 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.9 21.8 17.2 123.5 71.5 58.0 6.2 11.4 18.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.3 21.4 16.2 123.3 71.5 58.6 5.4 10.5 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 14.3 21.0 16.6 120.6 70.3 56.8 5.4 10.7 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.5 14.9 16.6 129.2 72.9 58.2 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 19.3 25.2 16.6 109.1 67.3 55.7 7.4 14.4 24.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 14.4 20.7 15.6 122.8 71.2 57.7 5.9 10.9 17.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.8 22.2 16.1 114.9 69.0 57.1 5.5 11.4 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 7.5 21.5 14.2 109.3 67.6 54.8 6.8 12.5 20.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 17.4 22.7 14.7 110.0 67.6 55.0 6.8 13.0 21.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 15.5 22.1 16.2 116.4 69.2 56.2 5.6 11.4 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 25.3 26.5 17.6 128.1 72.4 60.3 7.4 13.6 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.3 18.9 16.8 112.4 68.3 54.8 4.4 9.4 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.2 20.7 15.2 112.5 68.3 55.5 6.0 11.5 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.8 14.1 15.9 123.1 71.3 56.1 4.3 7.7 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 18.2 25.9 18.7 121.0 70.3 59.2 6.9 13.4 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.8 19.0 16.0 128.8 72.6 58.5 4.1 8.5 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 18.6 25.2 25.2 114.1 68.2 58.3 6.7 13.6 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 13.7 22.0 16.0 131.8 73.5 58.7 5.0 9.9 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.1 15.6 15.1 117.1 69.5 55.5 4.3 8.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.0 18.0 15.5 127.5 72.3 59.1 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 21.2 22.5 16.9 128.4 72.4 60.6 5.3 10.6 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.4 16.5 18.0 131.4 73.5 60.8 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.7 20.7 16.6 120.4 70.4 58.1 4.7 9.9 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 16.8 18.4 17.4 130.8 73.3 60.3 4.8 9.0 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.3 19.4 16.2 115.1 69.2 55.7 4.4 9.5 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 33.0 32.1 21.4 118.5 69.5 58.6 9.9 17.9 29.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.4 17.2 16.4 132.6 73.6 59.0 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------