***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2012.-25.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 5.6 13.8 90.2 59.1 48.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.2 8.2 12.0 84.2 57.8 47.2 2.9 6.1 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.8 9.7 14.4 92.6 60.0 48.7 3.1 6.7 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.3 15.0 17.2 106.1 65.3 53.0 4.3 8.8 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.8 11.0 16.3 100.1 62.8 50.4 3.3 6.9 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 5.4 15.3 15.8 104.0 63.8 51.2 5.1 9.7 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.3 8.2 11.9 84.7 57.5 46.8 3.0 6.2 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.2 20.6 17.2 97.6 61.9 49.5 7.1 13.9 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.6 9.7 15.9 94.9 60.3 48.7 3.2 6.7 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.1 10.7 16.9 95.5 60.7 48.6 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.2 12.5 15.3 100.6 63.1 50.0 3.5 7.6 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.1 15.4 15.3 102.5 63.8 50.7 4.2 9.2 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.9 15.0 15.3 102.0 63.4 51.0 4.3 9.2 16.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.2 15.8 17.0 93.2 59.9 47.3 5.8 11.3 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 12.7 17.8 17.5 110.9 67.7 55.6 3.7 8.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.1 12.9 15.0 103.8 64.2 51.0 3.5 7.6 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.6 7.6 10.3 74.8 54.2 45.0 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.6 11.7 18.3 92.9 59.1 47.1 4.4 8.6 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.2 9.9 12.7 86.2 58.5 47.6 3.8 7.5 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.2 13.6 22.2 90.6 58.6 47.5 4.6 9.9 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.7 9.4 15.2 93.3 59.8 48.8 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.0 9.7 11.0 73.8 53.9 44.6 4.8 8.5 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.7 9.3 14.2 90.5 59.7 48.1 3.4 6.7 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.5 12.5 16.7 94.1 60.1 47.7 4.1 8.6 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.9 16.3 97.3 61.8 51.0 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.1 15.9 15.2 100.3 62.9 50.4 4.6 9.9 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.9 9.1 14.9 92.7 60.1 49.4 3.0 6.3 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.8 15.1 16.9 109.7 66.8 53.9 4.3 8.6 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.9 18.3 19.4 90.7 58.3 46.7 6.4 13.4 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.5 8.8 12.9 88.5 59.2 48.2 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------