***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 5.6 9.8 89.7 58.7 47.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.3 7.4 8.8 84.8 57.6 45.6 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.0 9.7 89.6 58.6 47.3 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.7 15.0 11.9 102.6 63.3 47.7 6.4 10.6 16.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.2 10.9 94.0 59.9 47.5 3.6 7.3 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.4 9.1 11.5 94.4 61.0 49.0 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.2 7.3 9.0 84.8 57.8 45.7 2.9 5.7 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 14.2 14.3 11.9 92.3 59.3 47.9 7.2 11.4 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.9 10.5 89.6 58.0 47.8 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.3 11.4 90.1 58.1 48.3 4.8 8.9 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.8 10.6 96.2 61.1 48.8 4.1 8.1 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.3 13.2 10.9 95.5 61.0 47.8 4.7 9.1 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.5 11.1 11.5 94.9 60.8 48.3 4.8 8.2 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.7 11.7 91.1 58.6 48.4 4.5 8.9 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 5.5 21.3 13.0 118.5 69.2 49.6 5.1 10.7 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.9 11.0 98.1 62.0 48.9 3.8 7.3 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.1 7.5 8.7 85.1 57.7 44.6 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.4 12.7 89.2 57.0 48.5 5.2 9.2 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 8.7 8.1 9.0 85.9 57.5 45.8 2.8 6.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.5 15.9 90.4 58.2 48.8 5.6 10.5 17.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.4 9.8 10.2 90.0 58.2 46.9 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.3 8.5 9.1 86.9 57.8 45.2 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.2 7.8 9.5 88.4 57.6 46.6 2.8 5.9 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.4 11.3 89.8 58.0 48.3 5.0 9.0 14.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.9 11.7 95.9 61.0 48.9 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.3 8.2 11.7 93.8 60.6 47.6 3.2 5.9 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.9 9.2 10.9 90.8 59.2 48.2 3.5 6.7 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 5.5 14.6 11.8 106.0 64.7 47.9 5.2 9.4 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.2 13.9 88.9 57.0 48.4 7.4 13.2 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 8.3 7.8 9.0 86.0 57.9 46.3 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------