***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 63.9 66.8 131.1 75.7 68.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 57.1 60.0 60.5 123.3 71.7 65.0 29.1 40.6 54.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 68.5 74.0 65.4 129.4 75.0 68.5 35.1 48.1 63.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 76.3 88.2 72.9 133.9 77.3 69.1 43.6 57.8 73.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 64.8 73.8 70.7 130.7 75.7 68.5 34.0 46.9 61.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 66.3 75.5 70.7 135.8 77.4 69.4 33.1 45.9 61.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 52.2 56.3 61.8 125.3 72.5 65.7 27.8 38.2 50.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 101.9 110.1 75.6 126.8 74.4 67.3 51.0 71.0 94.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 61.1 66.2 68.4 125.9 73.4 67.1 31.2 43.5 57.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 70.2 75.4 73.2 125.2 73.5 66.9 37.5 51.0 66.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 71.0 82.5 68.1 131.7 76.0 68.3 31.3 47.0 65.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 79.9 92.1 68.6 132.2 76.5 68.6 33.0 50.6 72.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 75.8 87.8 70.1 133.1 76.7 68.8 32.1 48.7 69.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 84.8 86.8 72.8 123.4 72.3 66.7 47.1 62.0 78.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 80.5 95.7 72.4 134.9 77.0 68.8 38.7 55.9 76.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 70.0 82.6 68.9 135.9 77.8 69.5 32.3 47.0 64.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 45.3 54.9 57.1 117.3 68.3 61.9 28.5 39.8 52.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 75.9 80.3 79.4 122.5 72.7 66.3 40.6 55.3 71.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 61.8 65.1 61.0 123.3 71.7 65.5 33.2 45.1 59.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 90.1 92.8 99.5 120.0 71.5 65.3 43.9 62.2 83.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 63.8 70.1 68.5 130.6 75.6 68.9 31.8 44.2 58.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 49.1 59.2 57.9 115.1 67.2 61.0 32.0 44.0 57.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 60.1 62.2 62.9 123.2 71.8 66.1 34.0 44.7 56.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 76.0 79.8 72.1 125.4 73.7 67.3 37.7 52.6 69.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 60.1 69.7 75.3 134.4 77.9 71.2 27.5 40.0 54.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 68.8 78.2 69.1 130.2 75.2 67.5 32.5 47.3 64.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 58.2 66.2 71.9 132.3 76.6 70.0 29.3 40.9 54.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 69.2 82.1 71.3 136.5 77.9 69.4 34.4 48.7 65.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 109.5 113.0 86.1 119.7 71.2 65.1 60.0 80.5 103.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 56.6 60.8 62.7 127.1 73.5 67.0 28.7 40.0 53.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------