***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2018.-11.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 15.3 17.0 15.6 3.3 87.3 85.5 10.2 12.1 13.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 14.6 17.1 16.7 4.2 92.7 91.1 10.0 11.7 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 15.8 17.6 16.5 3.7 88.4 86.6 10.7 12.6 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 7.8 8.6 11.0 1.9 74.3 71.3 4.1 5.9 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 14.6 15.6 13.6 2.4 78.0 75.7 10.5 12.3 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 14.2 15.0 12.5 2.4 75.8 73.7 9.6 11.7 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 14.6 17.0 16.5 4.1 91.8 90.3 9.7 11.5 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 7.0 7.9 13.2 2.9 80.4 78.5 2.7 4.4 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 15.8 16.8 14.8 2.7 81.3 79.1 10.8 12.8 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 14.9 15.8 14.0 2.9 79.8 77.9 10.3 12.2 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 15.3 16.4 14.5 2.6 78.6 76.5 10.6 12.6 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 15.2 16.4 13.8 2.9 82.1 80.0 10.3 12.3 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 15.7 16.8 15.0 3.0 81.6 79.9 10.4 12.5 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 16.3 17.6 16.3 3.7 85.6 83.9 11.1 13.0 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 13.6 14.8 13.6 2.5 83.9 80.2 9.8 11.3 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 15.8 16.6 13.9 2.5 77.7 75.8 10.9 13.0 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 14.0 16.5 16.4 4.3 93.0 91.7 9.6 11.2 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 13.9 14.7 13.9 3.1 80.2 78.5 9.4 11.2 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 15.2 17.9 16.9 4.3 92.6 90.9 10.3 12.1 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 12.4 13.2 12.4 3.0 79.6 78.1 7.3 9.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 15.5 16.5 15.5 2.8 82.3 80.4 10.6 12.5 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 14.7 16.9 16.3 4.0 91.5 90.3 10.2 11.8 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 15.4 18.2 17.1 4.4 92.4 90.7 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 7 93 100 16.4 17.7 15.9 3.5 84.4 82.7 11.1 13.1 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 14.3 15.3 14.1 2.6 81.5 79.4 9.8 11.6 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 15.4 16.7 13.3 3.1 85.0 83.1 10.3 12.2 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 3 97 100 15.3 16.6 15.1 3.1 85.1 83.5 10.2 12.1 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 12.9 13.5 12.2 2.1 76.1 73.0 9.8 11.2 12.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 11.7 12.5 13.6 3.2 80.4 79.0 6.6 8.6 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 14.7 17.1 16.5 4.0 91.5 89.8 9.9 11.7 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------