***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2018.-25.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9.7 10.0 9.2 0.8 58.9 57.8 6.7 8.8 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.4 9.2 0.8 58.9 57.4 6.3 8.4 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.6 9.5 0.8 58.1 57.2 7.3 9.5 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 6.2 5.0 6.9 0.9 60.4 59.5 1.2 3.6 5.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.3 7.7 0.6 57.3 56.8 7.2 9.4 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 5.9 9.1 7.2 0.5 54.7 54.7 6.5 8.6 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.3 9.2 0.8 59.1 57.4 6.3 8.2 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 0.2 2.9 7.0 0.4 54.5 54.9 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.2 10.9 8.3 0.5 55.5 55.4 7.8 10.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.6 9.8 7.6 0.4 54.0 54.4 7.0 9.3 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 6.8 10.5 7.8 0.6 57.1 56.6 7.3 9.6 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.8 10.4 7.6 0.6 57.1 56.7 7.2 9.5 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 7.1 10.7 7.4 0.7 57.8 57.0 7.5 9.7 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 6.7 10.3 8.5 0.2 52.0 52.7 7.5 10.0 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 10.2 9.4 7.7 1.1 63.6 62.2 5.6 7.7 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 7.5 11.2 7.7 0.8 58.6 57.6 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 5.5 8.6 9.0 0.6 57.4 56.0 5.8 7.8 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.3 7.9 7.5 0.2 51.8 52.7 5.8 7.7 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.7 9.4 0.8 58.4 57.2 6.4 8.6 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.7 6.7 5.9 0.3 53.1 53.9 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.6 10.4 8.8 0.6 56.1 55.8 7.5 9.7 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.8 9.2 8.9 0.5 56.3 55.5 6.2 8.4 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 6.1 9.4 9.5 0.7 56.9 56.2 6.4 8.6 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 7.2 10.6 8.5 0.3 53.1 53.5 7.8 10.2 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.6 7.7 0.7 57.8 57.2 6.8 8.7 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 6.7 10.1 7.3 0.8 59.8 58.9 7.0 9.0 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.6 8.7 0.7 58.1 57.1 7.6 9.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 11.1 9.9 7.3 1.0 61.1 60.0 6.1 8.4 10.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 3.3 6.3 7.0 0.2 51.5 52.5 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.5 9.3 0.8 59.4 58.1 6.4 8.4 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------