***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2018.-02.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 11.9 13.2 11.4 2.2 83.3 76.2 8.5 9.9 11.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 11.3 12.8 11.7 2.4 86.2 78.7 8.0 9.3 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 12.4 13.6 11.9 2.3 83.7 76.6 9.0 10.5 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 6.1 6.9 8.3 1.8 79.2 72.4 2.9 4.3 5.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 12.2 13.0 9.8 1.9 79.1 72.6 8.9 10.3 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 11.5 12.2 9.0 1.8 77.0 71.0 8.3 9.7 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 11.1 12.5 11.6 2.4 85.9 78.6 7.8 9.2 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 4.5 5.1 9.2 1.9 79.2 72.8 2.1 3.1 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 12.8 13.8 10.6 1.9 79.6 72.8 9.4 10.9 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 11.9 12.8 9.9 1.9 78.7 72.3 8.7 10.2 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 12.5 13.5 10.1 1.9 79.4 72.9 9.0 10.6 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 12.3 13.4 9.7 2.0 80.9 74.2 8.9 10.4 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 12.4 13.5 10.0 2.0 80.2 73.7 9.0 10.5 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 12.9 13.7 11.2 2.1 78.9 72.6 9.4 10.9 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 10.3 11.5 9.7 2.0 83.6 76.2 7.4 8.7 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 13.0 13.9 9.8 2.0 79.6 73.1 9.5 11.0 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 10.6 12.0 11.4 2.3 85.9 78.5 7.5 8.8 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 10.3 11.0 9.8 1.9 77.9 71.7 7.6 8.8 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 11.7 13.2 11.9 2.5 86.0 78.4 8.3 9.7 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 9.1 9.8 8.2 1.8 77.9 72.1 6.1 7.4 8.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 12.4 13.3 11.2 1.9 79.8 73.2 9.0 10.5 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 11.3 12.6 11.4 2.2 84.0 76.9 8.0 9.4 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 11.7 13.1 12.2 2.5 85.2 77.8 8.3 9.7 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 13.3 14.1 11.1 2.1 79.8 73.1 9.9 11.4 12.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 11.3 12.1 9.9 1.9 80.0 73.5 8.1 9.5 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 11.9 13.0 9.3 2.1 83.5 76.6 8.7 10.0 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 12.2 13.3 10.9 2.1 81.9 75.1 8.9 10.3 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 10.6 11.4 9.0 1.9 80.0 73.0 7.8 9.0 10.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 8.6 9.3 9.3 1.9 77.4 71.4 5.5 6.9 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 11.3 12.7 11.7 2.4 85.7 78.3 8.1 9.4 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------