***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2018.-11.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 87 13 0 100 2.6 2.0 1.9 16.2 18.2 13.5 4.4 8.2 13.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 2.8 2.1 2.1 18.8 20.4 15.1 4.3 8.6 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 86 14 0 100 2.2 1.3 1.7 15.3 16.6 13.0 3.8 7.8 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 3.1 2.6 4.3 32.0 25.3 22.9 4.1 9.2 17.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 84 16 0 100 2.0 1.0 2.0 16.2 16.7 13.9 3.2 6.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 81 19 0 100 2.1 1.6 2.2 20.0 20.3 16.1 3.2 6.1 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 2.2 1.5 1.7 15.7 19.7 14.0 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 86 14 0 100 2.6 1.6 3.0 20.2 17.6 15.2 4.7 11.0 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 83 17 0 100 2.1 1.1 2.0 16.3 16.3 13.7 3.2 6.6 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 87 13 0 100 2.0 1.3 2.7 19.8 17.0 14.6 3.5 7.1 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 88 12 0 100 1.6 1.1 2.2 16.9 16.7 13.5 3.2 6.5 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 86 14 0 100 1.7 0.9 2.2 16.8 16.0 13.7 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 85 15 0 100 2.2 1.2 2.2 17.9 16.1 13.7 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 90 10 0 100 2.8 2.0 2.5 16.9 15.9 13.5 5.4 10.0 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 3.1 3.2 3.7 31.5 29.6 25.7 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 85 15 0 100 2.2 1.3 2.1 16.5 16.9 14.0 3.6 7.5 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 79 21 0 100 2.5 1.7 2.0 17.8 21.0 15.6 3.7 7.8 14.1 30 Palic 37000G16 86 14 0 100 2.3 1.2 2.7 18.3 15.2 13.7 4.0 8.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 83 17 0 100 1.9 1.1 2.0 18.1 18.8 14.4 3.1 7.0 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 85 15 0 100 2.8 2.1 3.8 22.2 18.8 16.8 5.0 10.1 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 2.3 1.3 1.9 16.2 16.6 13.5 3.7 7.0 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 2.9 2.1 2.4 20.9 21.6 16.7 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 87 13 0 100 2.0 1.2 1.9 15.6 16.2 13.2 3.8 7.9 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 87 13 0 100 2.2 1.1 2.1 15.6 14.7 12.6 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 88 12 0 100 1.6 1.2 2.3 18.1 19.2 14.5 3.1 7.2 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 2.2 1.6 2.7 22.3 21.5 17.0 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 87 13 0 100 1.8 1.3 2.0 16.2 18.4 13.7 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 2.3 2.1 3.7 30.1 26.3 23.2 2.9 6.2 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 85 15 0 100 3.3 1.9 3.2 20.5 16.7 15.1 5.6 11.6 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 2.1 1.4 1.9 16.9 18.7 13.9 3.5 7.1 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------