***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 2.7 5.8 8.0 55.7 43.7 28.2 3.7 7.4 12.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 2.8 5.5 6.8 53.5 43.4 28.9 3.4 7.2 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 3.9 7.8 8.3 58.0 43.4 28.4 4.8 10.0 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 4.8 10.6 9.8 61.1 47.6 29.6 6.2 11.4 18.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 4.6 9.5 9.6 62.8 46.7 31.7 5.4 10.5 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 4.2 8.3 7.9 55.6 43.3 29.0 5.4 10.7 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 3.0 5.9 6.8 54.1 44.1 29.4 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 5.5 12.2 9.8 61.6 45.3 30.4 7.4 14.4 24.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 4.9 10.1 9.6 63.8 47.8 31.8 5.9 10.9 17.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 4.2 9.9 10.0 64.1 46.6 31.5 5.5 11.4 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 5.3 10.8 9.6 63.0 45.4 31.7 6.8 12.5 20.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 5.3 10.6 8.9 59.3 44.0 29.6 6.8 13.0 21.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 4.5 9.1 8.8 58.0 43.9 29.6 5.6 11.4 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 6.5 11.8 10.0 60.9 45.5 31.1 7.4 13.6 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 3.5 8.5 9.3 57.7 47.3 29.6 4.4 9.4 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 4.9 9.8 8.7 59.5 45.1 30.5 6.0 11.5 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 3.4 6.8 7.2 57.8 46.2 30.4 4.3 7.7 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 5.5 12.1 10.3 64.4 46.9 32.0 6.9 13.4 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 3.3 6.4 7.1 54.0 43.0 28.7 4.1 8.5 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 5.3 10.3 11.9 60.1 42.9 30.6 6.7 13.6 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 3.7 8.5 9.1 61.1 45.8 30.2 5.0 9.9 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 3.2 7.4 7.9 59.3 47.0 31.1 4.3 8.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 3.6 7.0 7.7 55.4 42.4 28.6 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 4.5 9.3 9.8 63.4 46.4 31.2 5.3 10.6 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 3.0 6.5 9.5 58.3 44.4 29.5 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 3.6 7.9 9.2 58.2 44.2 29.5 4.7 9.9 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 3.6 7.3 8.5 56.2 43.9 28.8 4.8 9.0 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 3.5 8.7 9.2 60.6 47.6 29.9 4.4 9.5 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 7.8 15.3 10.9 63.1 45.1 31.6 9.9 17.9 29.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 2.9 5.8 7.3 54.8 43.7 28.9 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------