***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2018.-25.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 3.7 10.5 13.0 99.2 62.9 48.4 3.3 6.7 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.2 11.7 13.1 114.1 68.1 49.3 2.9 6.1 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.5 10.5 12.7 98.5 62.4 47.7 3.1 6.7 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.9 11.1 12.5 82.4 56.4 43.3 4.3 8.8 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.7 8.8 12.3 83.7 56.7 43.9 3.3 6.9 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 5.0 11.1 11.2 78.7 54.0 42.0 5.1 9.7 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.4 11.5 12.7 111.8 67.2 48.7 3.0 6.2 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 7.7 19.7 14.2 95.1 60.6 46.5 7.1 13.9 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.8 8.9 13.0 86.8 57.9 44.7 3.2 6.7 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.1 10.4 13.9 92.2 59.5 45.8 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.8 10.3 12.2 87.2 57.8 44.1 3.5 7.6 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.7 13.0 12.5 91.0 59.2 45.2 4.2 9.2 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 4.6 11.8 12.2 84.8 56.5 43.7 4.3 9.2 16.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.6 16.9 15.8 98.0 62.0 48.0 5.8 11.3 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.6 12.4 12.9 85.9 58.5 43.9 3.7 8.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.8 9.6 11.6 83.2 56.2 42.7 3.5 7.6 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.4 12.5 13.0 115.6 68.5 49.7 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.0 12.1 14.9 95.0 60.3 47.5 4.4 8.6 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.2 13.1 13.2 111.1 67.0 49.3 3.8 7.5 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.6 15.6 19.9 99.8 62.3 48.8 4.6 9.9 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.7 9.1 12.7 88.6 58.8 46.0 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.1 15.4 14.4 120.5 70.0 50.8 4.8 8.5 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.9 11.0 13.3 103.9 64.6 48.9 3.4 6.7 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.8 12.6 14.0 94.1 60.5 47.4 4.1 8.6 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.7 9.2 13.5 90.8 59.8 47.1 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 5.0 12.4 12.6 83.5 55.9 43.4 4.6 9.9 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.3 9.7 13.2 96.5 61.9 47.7 3.0 6.3 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.9 10.7 11.7 81.6 56.2 42.1 4.3 8.6 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.5 19.9 16.1 95.7 60.5 48.2 6.4 13.4 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.5 11.6 13.1 110.2 66.8 49.0 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------