***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2018.-02.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.3 8.3 12.2 87.8 58.5 44.0 3.2 6.2 10.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 3.0 9.0 11.8 99.4 63.6 46.9 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.0 10.2 12.1 89.4 59.1 45.5 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 13.5 13.9 14.1 92.3 60.4 48.0 6.4 10.6 16.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.0 10.0 13.7 90.9 59.3 47.1 3.6 7.3 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.6 9.5 13.3 98.2 62.3 50.5 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 2.9 8.9 11.7 100.5 64.0 46.9 2.9 5.7 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 7.3 14.5 14.6 92.9 60.0 47.4 7.2 11.4 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.8 8.8 13.6 88.0 57.9 46.3 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.2 11.4 14.1 89.5 58.3 46.4 4.8 8.9 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.2 11.4 13.5 93.1 60.3 47.5 4.1 8.1 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.3 13.5 13.8 96.1 61.5 48.6 4.7 9.1 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.4 11.3 14.2 95.5 61.5 49.7 4.8 8.2 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.9 11.6 14.5 88.6 58.1 45.5 4.5 8.9 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 5.9 17.6 14.8 98.1 63.8 50.0 5.1 10.7 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.3 10.6 13.3 93.5 60.7 48.7 3.8 7.3 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.2 9.3 11.8 101.2 64.4 48.0 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.4 11.5 14.3 87.4 57.5 46.1 5.2 9.2 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.0 9.7 12.0 97.1 62.5 46.4 2.8 6.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 6.0 13.6 18.0 88.4 58.3 46.5 5.6 10.5 17.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.1 9.9 13.0 89.7 58.9 46.4 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.3 10.3 12.2 98.8 63.3 48.3 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.1 8.8 12.7 94.4 61.1 46.1 2.8 5.9 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.2 11.2 13.4 87.4 57.6 45.5 5.0 9.0 14.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.2 8.3 13.8 89.2 59.0 45.3 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 7.6 8.7 15.0 97.7 62.7 51.3 3.2 5.9 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.5 9.0 12.8 88.4 58.5 43.8 3.5 6.7 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.6 13.3 13.4 93.9 61.3 48.9 5.2 9.4 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.7 16.2 15.0 86.4 57.1 45.9 7.4 13.2 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 3.0 9.1 11.9 96.2 62.3 46.3 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------