***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.11.2018.-02.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 25.2 28.9 35.2 66.2 32.2 33.1 29.5 40.6 53.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 26.0 32.3 33.9 71.8 38.1 36.8 29.1 40.6 54.1 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 30.7 34.9 34.8 66.8 32.7 33.1 35.1 48.1 63.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 39.6 43.3 40.7 67.9 32.6 32.4 43.6 57.8 73.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 30.3 31.4 37.6 65.5 29.7 30.5 34.0 46.9 61.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 27.9 30.8 34.6 65.3 29.9 30.8 33.1 45.9 61.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 24.9 30.9 32.9 70.7 38.0 36.6 27.8 38.2 50.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 44.7 48.6 41.6 67.9 30.8 30.9 51.0 71.0 94.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 27.4 29.1 38.1 66.2 29.9 31.0 31.2 43.5 57.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 32.8 35.2 40.8 67.7 30.2 31.0 37.5 51.0 66.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 28.1 28.9 37.4 66.5 30.2 30.6 31.3 47.0 65.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 28.8 30.5 37.4 66.7 30.6 30.5 33.0 50.6 72.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 27.6 29.7 37.5 65.8 30.0 30.9 32.1 48.7 69.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 42.4 45.2 42.7 67.2 30.8 31.9 47.1 62.0 78.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 34.4 42.8 40.8 70.1 37.3 35.0 38.7 55.9 76.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 28.8 29.4 35.7 64.6 29.3 30.2 32.3 47.0 64.4 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 26.5 33.1 34.0 73.2 40.1 38.2 28.5 39.8 52.6 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 34.7 37.9 42.3 67.4 29.6 31.0 40.6 55.3 71.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 30.3 35.5 34.4 70.6 36.5 35.6 33.2 45.1 59.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 38.4 42.8 53.6 69.1 31.7 31.8 43.9 62.2 83.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 28.1 30.4 36.7 65.9 31.0 32.1 31.8 44.2 58.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 30.2 36.9 37.0 74.9 40.3 38.4 32.0 44.0 57.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 31.3 34.5 35.6 68.3 33.7 33.6 34.0 44.7 56.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 32.6 35.6 39.2 66.6 30.2 31.4 37.7 52.6 69.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 24.4 26.2 39.2 65.7 31.0 32.4 27.5 40.0 54.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 27.3 31.6 39.5 67.6 32.1 32.0 32.5 47.3 64.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 25.9 28.5 36.6 65.8 31.8 32.7 29.3 40.9 54.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 31.2 34.7 38.0 67.9 33.5 32.8 34.4 48.7 65.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 52.4 55.9 45.2 67.4 29.5 30.9 60.0 80.5 103.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 25.2 31.2 34.1 70.3 36.8 35.9 28.7 40.0 53.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------