***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-03.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 3.5 3.7 4.5 1.3 73.0 68.3 1.2 2.3 3.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 2.9 3.2 4.1 1.2 71.9 67.8 0.5 1.7 2.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 4.8 5.0 4.3 1.1 70.7 66.6 2.5 3.6 4.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 -1.3 -0.4 1.3 0.8 66.5 62.5 -3.0 -1.7 -0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 1.6 2.3 2.2 0.9 67.3 63.7 0.3 1.3 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 1.0 1.6 0.0 0.8 66.0 63.2 -0.5 0.6 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 2.8 3.0 4.1 1.2 70.5 66.8 0.6 1.7 2.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -3.1 -2.6 0.2 0.8 64.8 62.0 -4.7 -3.5 -2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 3.0 3.1 2.5 1.0 68.5 64.7 1.0 2.0 3.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 2.5 2.4 0.9 0.8 65.9 62.8 0.4 1.4 2.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 1.5 2.2 1.6 0.9 66.6 63.1 0.0 1.1 2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 0.7 1.3 0.9 0.8 65.1 62.1 -0.8 0.3 1.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 1.1 1.7 0.7 0.8 64.3 61.7 -0.2 0.8 1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 3.1 2.9 2.0 0.7 63.9 61.4 1.3 2.2 3.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 2.6 2.9 2.7 1.0 71.7 66.6 0.5 1.5 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 2.2 2.9 1.1 0.9 66.3 62.9 0.8 1.9 2.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 2.6 2.7 3.8 1.1 69.0 65.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.8 63.9 61.3 -1.1 -0.3 0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 2.9 3.1 4.1 1.2 72.0 67.8 0.7 1.8 2.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 -2.3 -1.7 -0.9 0.8 63.9 61.6 -4.0 -2.7 -1.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 2.8 3.0 3.6 1.0 69.3 65.2 0.8 1.8 2.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 2.3 2.3 3.8 1.0 68.8 65.4 0.3 1.2 2.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 2.7 2.8 3.8 1.1 71.0 67.0 0.7 1.6 2.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 2.4 2.2 1.8 0.8 65.7 62.7 0.7 1.5 2.3 27 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 3.0 3.3 3.5 1.3 72.2 67.6 1.0 2.0 2.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 1.4 1.9 0.6 0.8 64.2 61.8 0.1 1.1 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 3.5 3.8 4.2 1.3 72.3 67.9 1.0 2.2 3.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 0.6 1.3 1.5 0.8 66.0 62.2 -0.8 0.3 1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -0.2 0.4 -0.2 0.8 64.5 62.0 -1.9 -0.7 0.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 3.3 3.6 4.3 1.2 72.4 68.1 0.9 2.0 3.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------