***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 12.1 13.1 13.0 0.9 62.2 61.8 10.0 11.8 13.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 11.5 12.7 13.5 1.2 65.9 65.3 9.6 11.2 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 12.6 13.7 13.6 1.1 63.6 63.2 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 6.4 4.7 8.1 -0.9 38.7 39.3 4.1 5.8 7.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 94 6 100 12.4 12.5 11.0 0.2 52.9 52.9 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 95 5 100 11.7 11.6 9.7 0.1 50.5 50.6 9.5 11.5 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 11.4 12.7 13.4 1.3 66.0 65.4 9.3 11.0 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 95 5 100 4.5 5.0 10.3 0.6 56.8 56.6 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 93 7 100 12.9 13.6 12.4 0.7 58.6 58.3 10.7 12.6 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 93 7 100 12.2 12.9 11.4 0.8 58.8 58.5 10.2 12.0 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 91 9 100 12.8 13.6 12.2 0.9 60.1 59.8 10.5 12.5 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 94 6 100 12.4 13.1 11.0 0.7 58.2 58.0 10.2 12.2 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 93 7 100 12.5 13.5 12.3 0.9 60.3 60.1 10.2 12.3 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 93 7 100 13.0 13.9 13.1 1.0 60.7 60.3 10.9 12.8 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 11.2 10.5 10.6 -0.4 44.4 44.8 9.5 11.0 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 93 7 100 13.1 13.8 11.6 0.8 58.7 58.4 10.7 12.8 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 11.1 12.1 13.0 1.1 64.4 63.8 9.3 10.8 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 94 6 100 11.1 11.7 11.0 0.8 58.1 57.8 9.1 10.9 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 48 52 100 13.2 13.4 13.8 1.4 67.1 66.4 9.9 11.6 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 96 4 100 9.3 9.9 9.3 0.7 56.9 56.7 7.2 9.1 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 93 7 100 12.5 13.1 13.0 0.7 58.2 58.0 10.4 12.2 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 11.6 12.7 13.2 1.1 63.8 63.2 9.8 11.4 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 13.6 13.8 14.1 1.6 69.5 68.7 10.0 11.8 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 92 8 100 13.2 14.2 13.0 1.0 61.4 61.0 10.9 12.9 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 11.5 12.0 11.7 0.5 57.0 56.8 9.5 11.3 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 98 2 100 12.0 12.3 10.2 0.3 53.7 53.6 10.0 11.9 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 12.2 13.2 12.7 1.0 62.4 62.1 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 11.3 10.2 9.3 -0.7 40.4 40.9 9.6 10.9 12.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 94 6 100 8.6 9.4 10.6 0.9 59.1 58.8 6.5 8.4 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 11.6 12.9 13.6 1.3 66.3 65.8 9.5 11.2 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------