***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.11.2017.-03.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 8.1 8.5 7.6 1.0 60.1 58.2 5.9 7.5 9.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.5 7.9 7.5 1.1 60.5 58.4 5.5 7.0 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.8 9.2 8.0 1.1 60.5 58.5 6.6 8.2 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 2.8 2.7 4.8 0.7 57.0 56.0 0.2 2.0 3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.8 6.0 0.9 58.5 56.9 6.3 8.0 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.6 5.9 1.2 61.1 59.0 5.9 7.5 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.9 7.5 1.1 60.9 58.8 5.3 6.9 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 2.5 2.7 5.7 1.0 59.5 57.4 0.4 1.9 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.6 6.9 1.0 59.3 57.5 7.0 8.7 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.7 9.0 6.3 1.1 59.6 57.6 6.4 8.1 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.8 9.0 6.1 1.0 58.9 57.1 6.3 8.1 9.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.8 9.1 5.9 1.0 59.2 57.3 6.5 8.2 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.4 5.8 1.1 60.8 58.6 6.4 8.2 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 9.1 9.4 7.5 1.2 60.0 57.7 6.8 8.5 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.8 5.4 0.6 56.0 55.7 5.2 6.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.8 5.9 1.0 59.7 57.6 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.8 7.1 7.4 1.0 60.0 57.9 4.8 6.3 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.9 6.5 1.2 60.6 58.3 4.6 6.0 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 7.8 8.2 7.8 1.1 60.6 58.4 5.8 7.3 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 5.4 5.9 4.8 1.2 61.2 58.9 3.0 4.8 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.9 9.1 7.3 1.0 59.2 57.5 6.6 8.2 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.4 7.7 7.3 0.9 59.1 56.9 5.4 6.9 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 8.0 8.4 8.1 1.2 61.0 58.5 5.9 7.4 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.9 7.4 1.2 60.4 58.1 7.3 8.9 10.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.7 7.8 6.0 0.9 58.7 57.2 5.6 7.1 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.7 9.1 5.6 1.0 60.9 58.8 6.6 8.1 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.8 9.2 7.1 1.0 60.3 58.3 6.5 8.2 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.4 5.2 0.7 57.0 56.1 5.4 6.8 8.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 5.5 6.0 6.0 1.2 61.0 58.7 3.4 5.0 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 7.7 8.1 7.6 1.1 60.8 58.7 5.7 7.2 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------