***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-03.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.2 9.6 0.3 55.7 54.5 8.3 9.8 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 9.5 9.8 9.8 0.5 57.9 56.3 7.7 9.1 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.7 10.1 0.3 56.0 54.5 8.8 10.2 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 2.3 3.7 6.3 -0.3 44.2 46.0 2.7 4.2 5.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.1 7.9 0.0 49.8 49.9 8.7 10.1 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.1 9.7 7.2 0.1 51.6 51.5 8.1 9.5 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 9.3 9.7 9.7 0.5 58.8 57.1 7.6 9.0 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 3.4 3.0 7.3 0.0 50.4 50.5 1.9 3.0 4.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.4 10.9 8.9 0.1 52.0 51.4 9.2 10.7 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.1 8.0 0.1 51.5 51.1 8.5 10.0 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 10.9 10.6 8.4 0.2 53.2 52.5 8.8 10.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.4 7.8 0.1 52.5 52.2 8.7 10.2 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 10.8 10.9 8.2 0.4 56.4 55.6 8.8 10.3 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 11.2 11.0 9.4 0.2 53.2 52.2 9.2 10.7 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 7.0 8.2 7.6 -0.2 46.8 48.6 7.2 8.4 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.4 11.2 8.1 0.2 54.2 53.5 9.3 10.9 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 8.9 9.1 9.5 0.4 56.5 55.1 7.2 8.6 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.0 8.7 7.9 0.1 51.1 50.7 7.3 8.6 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 9.9 10.2 10.0 0.5 58.2 56.4 8.0 9.5 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 7.6 7.2 6.2 0.0 50.1 50.5 5.8 7.2 8.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.5 9.4 0.1 52.0 51.5 8.8 10.3 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 9.6 9.6 9.5 0.3 55.2 54.0 7.7 9.1 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 10.0 10.3 10.3 0.6 59.3 57.1 8.1 9.5 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.7 11.5 9.3 0.2 53.5 52.4 9.7 11.2 12.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.4 8.2 0.1 52.0 51.7 7.9 9.3 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.1 7.4 0.2 54.4 54.3 8.5 9.8 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.7 10.6 9.2 0.3 56.2 55.0 8.7 10.1 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 7.3 8.5 6.9 -0.3 45.2 47.1 7.6 8.8 10.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 7.2 6.9 7.4 0.1 51.6 51.4 5.3 6.7 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 9.6 9.9 9.8 0.5 58.3 56.6 7.8 9.2 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------