***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-12.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9.9 10.6 11.1 82.9 59.4 52.5 4.0 7.7 13.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 10.0 11.0 9.3 81.6 59.2 52.7 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 9.6 10.1 10.0 81.3 58.2 52.1 3.7 7.6 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 11.0 17.6 19.1 118.8 69.7 61.5 3.7 8.3 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 8.9 8.9 11.6 80.0 57.5 50.6 3.0 6.6 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 7.8 8.8 12.8 88.1 60.8 54.3 3.1 6.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 9.5 9.8 9.2 80.3 58.9 51.7 3.5 7.2 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 14.8 15.3 14.4 85.9 58.1 52.2 4.4 10.7 20.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 8.1 8.2 10.6 77.3 56.5 50.3 3.2 6.6 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 9.2 8.3 11.7 75.7 54.2 48.5 3.5 7.1 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 9.0 9.6 12.8 87.1 59.8 52.3 3.2 6.7 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 8.2 10.4 15.4 98.9 63.8 56.7 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 9.3 11.8 15.8 96.6 63.2 56.6 3.5 7.3 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 11.6 12.0 11.9 81.9 57.6 51.5 5.1 9.5 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 14.6 18.6 24.5 151.6 77.7 67.6 3.0 6.6 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 9.1 11.4 15.1 97.4 63.8 56.8 3.6 7.1 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 10.1 10.3 8.8 79.7 58.3 51.3 3.4 7.5 13.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 9.6 8.9 12.2 77.0 54.4 49.2 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 9.2 10.6 9.8 85.6 60.1 53.7 3.5 7.3 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 12.3 11.9 16.4 82.3 55.9 51.2 4.4 9.5 17.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 8.6 8.7 10.6 77.6 56.8 50.4 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 9.7 12.1 11.0 95.7 63.3 55.8 3.6 7.5 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 9.8 11.2 10.5 88.2 60.5 53.5 4.0 7.8 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 9.1 9.0 11.0 79.5 56.8 50.3 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 9.0 9.6 12.4 81.6 58.6 51.4 3.1 6.8 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 8.9 13.5 18.9 112.4 68.6 61.7 2.9 6.6 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 8.0 8.6 11.6 82.5 59.3 51.7 3.1 6.2 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 11.6 13.2 19.8 130.8 72.7 64.2 2.6 5.5 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 14.5 14.1 13.9 81.5 56.3 51.2 5.2 11.2 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 8.5 9.9 10.0 85.8 60.7 54.2 3.5 6.9 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------