***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.11.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 15.6 19.2 18.6 151.4 77.8 65.4 3.8 7.5 12.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 14.8 17.5 15.4 137.3 74.7 64.1 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 20.6 26.6 19.0 154.1 78.4 64.7 4.6 9.5 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 23.6 34.3 26.6 184.4 83.6 69.8 5.7 11.0 18.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 20.9 29.4 22.4 164.2 80.4 65.9 4.9 10.0 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 22.4 28.7 20.0 151.6 77.9 65.6 6.1 11.6 19.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 13.4 15.9 15.8 138.8 75.0 63.4 3.7 7.1 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 29.0 39.0 22.6 156.3 78.9 64.3 7.7 15.1 25.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 19.7 27.0 21.1 160.8 79.7 64.0 5.4 10.3 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 23.0 32.0 22.3 160.6 79.8 64.0 5.7 11.4 19.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 22.4 30.4 21.8 157.4 79.2 65.1 6.0 11.6 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 25.7 33.1 20.8 151.2 77.9 64.7 5.8 12.2 21.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 26.3 32.0 20.9 151.0 77.8 66.3 6.5 12.8 21.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 24.1 31.0 21.7 151.4 77.9 65.8 5.9 12.0 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 22.8 37.1 27.4 191.0 84.0 69.0 4.1 9.4 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 23.4 30.1 21.2 159.8 79.5 66.8 6.3 12.0 19.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 14.4 15.9 14.1 129.6 72.8 61.9 4.2 7.8 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 25.2 34.3 22.7 159.2 79.5 63.5 5.6 11.7 20.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 17.1 19.9 15.9 138.4 75.0 64.2 4.0 8.2 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 28.9 39.1 27.8 155.7 78.8 64.0 6.4 13.6 24.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 20.4 27.1 20.3 158.7 79.2 64.9 4.9 9.8 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 11.0 16.4 13.7 119.2 70.0 60.2 4.4 8.5 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 16.7 19.7 17.4 145.0 76.5 65.3 4.4 8.5 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 21.1 28.3 21.2 157.1 79.1 64.3 4.5 9.8 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 16.0 20.0 21.6 151.6 77.9 65.2 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 24.3 30.8 23.0 157.4 79.0 69.0 5.9 11.5 19.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 17.6 20.7 19.6 148.8 77.3 65.3 4.5 8.6 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 22.7 34.5 25.5 187.3 83.8 69.7 4.8 10.1 17.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 32.8 42.1 24.6 155.8 78.9 64.2 9.0 17.0 28.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 15.1 18.8 16.9 145.7 76.6 64.8 3.6 7.5 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------