***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.11.2017.-26.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.3 8.7 12.1 83.9 57.6 48.0 3.4 6.7 11.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.7 11.4 87.0 58.8 48.3 3.1 6.3 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.0 11.7 84.0 57.9 48.1 3.0 6.6 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.5 14.1 13.7 96.4 62.7 51.1 4.6 9.1 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.9 13.2 95.5 62.0 49.8 3.5 7.1 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.4 13.4 12.2 93.6 61.0 49.2 4.6 9.2 15.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.2 8.4 11.4 88.5 59.1 48.3 2.8 5.9 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.4 18.4 13.8 93.4 60.3 47.7 6.8 13.2 22.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.9 13.6 94.7 61.4 49.2 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.7 10.1 14.0 93.5 60.3 48.1 3.0 6.7 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.4 12.0 12.3 91.4 60.2 47.9 3.8 8.1 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.5 12.6 11.9 89.2 59.0 46.6 3.9 8.8 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.5 11.8 12.0 86.5 57.8 46.7 4.0 8.7 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.9 15.6 14.4 87.7 58.3 48.8 6.1 11.7 19.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.7 17.4 16.0 109.8 67.9 54.7 3.8 8.6 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.7 10.2 11.8 88.5 58.9 47.4 3.1 7.1 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 8.9 9.1 11.3 89.1 59.5 48.9 3.1 6.5 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.1 12.7 14.7 93.0 59.7 48.8 4.8 9.1 15.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.3 11.4 85.3 58.3 48.3 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 14.3 15.7 19.3 99.9 62.4 50.3 5.0 10.1 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.0 9.1 12.6 89.0 59.5 48.5 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 11.9 12.1 11.8 86.7 58.9 49.1 5.2 9.3 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.0 11.9 85.1 58.3 48.8 3.0 6.7 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.0 12.3 13.1 87.6 58.3 48.6 4.2 8.9 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.5 13.4 86.4 58.5 48.6 3.3 6.4 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 5.2 13.9 13.0 92.1 60.8 49.2 4.8 9.6 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.6 12.7 84.2 57.7 48.0 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 4.5 13.5 13.6 99.6 63.9 51.8 3.8 8.2 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.3 21.1 16.1 94.3 60.0 49.1 7.2 15.0 26.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.2 11.7 86.6 58.8 48.0 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------