***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.11.2017.-03.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9.2 12.5 14.2 114.6 68.6 55.6 3.6 6.9 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.6 11.0 13.1 120.3 70.4 55.6 2.9 5.6 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.4 13.9 13.8 113.1 67.9 54.5 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.8 15.5 14.5 106.1 65.6 54.9 5.9 10.2 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 9.8 11.6 13.8 100.0 62.9 52.7 3.6 7.4 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.9 9.2 13.4 104.6 64.6 53.2 3.4 6.0 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.8 11.1 13.1 119.4 70.2 55.5 3.4 6.1 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 14.0 16.9 15.6 105.7 64.8 54.6 6.8 11.4 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.3 10.7 14.4 100.3 62.6 51.8 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.9 13.6 15.4 102.7 63.3 53.0 4.8 9.0 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 11.1 13.4 13.6 102.7 63.8 53.7 4.0 8.2 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.7 16.4 13.8 106.9 65.3 54.4 4.5 9.5 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.3 13.7 14.3 107.4 65.3 53.7 5.0 8.9 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.7 15.7 16.9 116.6 68.6 55.1 4.8 8.9 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.1 20.2 14.5 106.4 66.7 55.9 5.0 10.7 19.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.8 12.3 13.6 106.6 65.2 54.2 3.6 7.2 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.1 11.2 12.5 114.2 68.7 55.2 3.3 6.1 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.0 14.9 17.2 109.7 65.9 54.4 5.1 9.2 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.4 12.5 13.4 120.2 70.2 55.8 2.9 6.0 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.9 18.1 22.4 115.5 68.3 57.5 4.6 9.5 16.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.2 12.5 14.1 105.7 65.1 53.1 3.7 7.5 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.0 11.0 12.8 113.1 68.4 55.6 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.8 11.5 14.1 119.4 69.8 56.1 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.6 14.5 15.7 112.0 67.0 54.1 5.0 8.9 14.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.1 12.0 15.4 110.7 67.2 55.3 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.2 11.9 14.3 109.3 66.7 55.6 3.9 7.2 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.9 13.2 14.9 114.4 68.4 55.5 4.1 7.6 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.6 15.5 13.6 105.3 65.7 54.7 5.2 9.6 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.7 20.3 19.1 113.6 67.4 55.3 6.5 11.9 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.2 11.8 13.5 119.6 70.1 55.5 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------