***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.11.2017.-03.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 44.1 50.3 56.1 106.7 62.4 58.3 27.7 39.8 53.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 44.1 48.9 49.3 105.6 61.6 56.7 27.8 39.3 52.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 53.1 59.0 54.4 107.4 62.5 57.6 34.1 47.6 62.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 77.4 81.7 74.0 126.7 72.8 66.0 41.2 56.2 72.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 53.3 59.9 61.0 109.4 63.6 58.7 33.1 46.8 62.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 51.8 58.1 58.4 109.1 63.4 57.4 32.3 45.6 60.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 42.0 46.5 49.6 106.0 61.8 56.9 27.1 37.8 50.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 82.2 91.2 66.3 109.3 63.5 57.7 50.7 71.5 95.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 50.1 54.6 59.7 107.5 62.4 57.1 30.8 43.5 58.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 58.2 62.4 63.4 106.9 61.9 56.1 37.5 51.2 66.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 56.4 64.1 60.6 109.5 63.7 58.2 31.3 47.9 67.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 63.8 73.7 61.8 111.4 64.9 59.4 37.1 54.3 75.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 58.3 67.8 63.1 109.8 63.9 58.9 32.4 50.0 71.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 67.6 73.8 64.9 108.6 63.1 56.5 45.8 60.7 76.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 82.4 98.0 82.4 140.5 77.6 69.0 39.0 56.6 77.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 54.2 64.2 61.7 112.5 65.5 60.1 31.6 46.8 64.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 45.0 48.0 46.7 102.5 59.9 55.5 28.5 40.0 53.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 62.5 68.0 66.8 108.4 62.9 56.4 40.0 54.7 71.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 49.6 54.5 50.6 106.4 62.0 57.1 32.1 44.5 58.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 72.4 84.2 85.9 111.9 65.1 58.9 44.4 63.4 85.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 49.7 54.9 57.6 106.8 62.1 57.4 31.0 43.9 59.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 49.5 52.8 49.1 102.9 60.0 55.5 32.0 44.3 58.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 47.8 53.2 53.8 108.5 63.1 57.6 32.6 43.5 55.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 58.8 64.7 60.9 108.4 63.0 56.5 36.2 51.1 68.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 44.2 50.1 62.7 106.7 62.2 58.7 26.4 39.0 54.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 71.3 71.0 69.2 118.0 68.8 63.5 32.2 47.8 66.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 44.9 50.2 58.8 106.3 62.1 58.2 28.1 40.0 54.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 69.8 76.8 72.4 131.1 74.2 66.2 34.6 49.1 65.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 90.2 100.7 73.7 110.3 64.3 57.5 59.2 79.8 103.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 43.5 49.9 52.1 108.4 63.2 58.1 27.9 39.2 52.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------