***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 3.9 2.4 5.2 -0.7 39.7 42.0 1.7 3.3 4.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 0.5 0.6 4.0 -1.4 28.6 34.3 1.0 2.5 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.1 3.6 5.1 -0.8 36.4 39.8 3.3 4.7 6.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 0.1 -0.4 3.2 0.1 51.7 52.1 -1.9 -0.5 0.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 2.6 2.5 4.8 0.3 55.3 53.8 0.5 2.1 3.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 3.6 4.3 3.7 1.7 76.7 72.4 -0.3 1.4 3.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 0.7 0.9 4.0 -1.3 30.4 35.3 1.1 2.6 4.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -2.0 -1.5 2.9 0.7 60.8 59.5 -4.1 -2.5 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 3.5 3.1 4.6 0.2 53.0 51.7 1.3 2.9 4.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 3.1 2.9 3.2 0.3 54.5 53.9 0.9 2.5 3.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 2.7 3.2 4.7 0.7 61.3 59.0 0.4 2.1 3.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 3.0 3.1 4.2 1.2 68.5 65.1 -0.5 1.2 2.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 3.9 4.4 4.9 1.7 75.5 71.3 0.2 1.8 3.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 1.9 1.8 3.0 -1.3 27.2 35.5 2.2 3.4 4.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 3.0 2.2 4.6 -0.1 47.8 48.9 0.8 2.4 3.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 4.8 4.9 4.6 1.3 69.9 66.3 1.3 3.0 4.5 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 0.4 0.3 3.3 -1.8 23.1 29.7 1.2 2.5 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 1.4 0.7 2.5 -0.2 46.7 48.7 -0.4 0.9 2.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 0.8 1.0 4.1 -1.3 29.0 34.7 1.4 2.8 4.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 -1.1 -0.9 1.9 0.5 58.0 57.6 -3.9 -1.8 0.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 3.2 2.4 5.4 -0.2 47.5 47.3 1.1 2.6 4.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 0.1 -0.2 3.5 -1.8 21.0 28.1 0.9 2.2 3.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 1.0 1.1 4.2 -1.2 30.2 35.9 1.4 2.7 3.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 2.7 1.2 3.6 -0.7 38.1 42.3 0.8 2.2 3.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 3.4 2.4 5.0 -0.3 44.9 45.9 1.3 2.8 4.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 4.3 5.1 4.9 2.0 77.8 73.6 0.4 2.1 3.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 3.9 2.4 5.0 -0.5 42.2 43.9 1.4 3.2 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 1.6 1.6 3.9 0.4 56.5 55.9 -0.7 1.0 2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 1.2 0.3 1.8 -0.1 47.1 49.5 -1.0 0.6 2.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 1.1 1.4 4.4 -1.2 31.9 36.8 1.5 3.0 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------