***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-13.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 8.5 8.1 9.5 -2.7 17.8 24.5 10.0 11.8 13.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 86 14 0 100 7.8 6.2 8.6 -3.7 10.1 17.6 9.3 10.9 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 9.0 8.3 9.5 -3.0 16.7 23.6 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 3.8 4.2 7.8 -1.3 33.7 37.1 4.2 5.8 7.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 9.7 10.4 9.3 -1.5 32.9 37.0 10.4 12.3 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 12.1 11.4 9.3 0.0 50.6 51.4 9.4 11.4 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 85 15 0 100 7.5 5.9 8.5 -3.6 10.5 17.8 9.1 10.8 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 2.4 3.1 8.2 -1.3 36.4 39.8 2.8 4.3 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 9.7 10.1 9.7 -1.9 27.5 32.7 10.8 12.6 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 9.5 10.0 8.6 -1.8 30.7 35.2 10.2 11.9 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 10.0 11.0 10.0 -1.2 36.5 40.0 10.6 12.5 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.8 11.1 9.3 -0.8 40.9 43.6 10.2 12.1 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.0 11.4 10.5 -0.6 43.6 45.8 10.2 12.2 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 9.5 8.3 8.2 -3.7 14.6 21.6 10.9 12.7 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 8.7 9.0 9.9 -1.2 31.6 35.6 9.2 10.6 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.6 11.8 9.9 -0.7 42.1 44.4 10.7 12.8 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 87 13 0 100 7.4 5.6 7.8 -3.9 8.2 15.1 8.9 10.5 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 8.3 8.5 7.6 -2.3 27.4 32.2 9.1 10.8 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 86 14 0 100 8.2 6.7 8.8 -3.6 11.0 18.4 9.8 11.5 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.9 7.2 6.5 -1.7 32.6 36.1 7.3 9.1 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 9.3 9.3 10.0 -2.3 23.4 29.1 10.5 12.3 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 87 13 0 100 8.0 6.1 8.0 -3.9 8.5 15.5 9.6 11.2 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 86 14 0 100 8.2 7.1 8.9 -3.5 12.6 20.1 9.8 11.6 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 9.9 9.3 8.8 -3.0 20.2 26.3 11.0 12.9 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 8.5 8.4 9.1 -2.2 24.0 29.4 9.5 11.3 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.3 11.7 9.6 0.0 50.0 51.1 9.9 11.7 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 8.4 8.2 9.2 -2.6 19.5 25.8 10.0 11.8 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.3 9.9 9.1 -0.9 38.2 40.9 9.5 10.8 12.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 5.9 6.0 7.1 -2.2 27.7 32.5 6.7 8.5 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 86 14 0 100 7.8 6.6 8.9 -3.4 12.1 19.6 9.4 11.1 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------