***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.11.2016.-20.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 11.3 12.2 10.0 1.0 61.2 59.6 8.1 10.6 12.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 10.3 10.4 9.7 0.5 55.5 55.3 7.4 9.7 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 11.3 12.1 10.4 1.0 61.0 59.3 8.0 10.5 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 5.4 6.8 7.6 1.3 64.4 62.3 2.3 4.7 7.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 11.1 12.4 8.9 1.4 64.5 62.1 8.0 10.4 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 12.2 12.7 8.4 2.2 70.2 67.1 7.7 10.0 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 10.2 10.3 9.5 0.5 55.3 55.2 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 45 55 100 4.6 4.9 8.3 1.9 68.5 65.7 1.0 2.8 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 11.6 13.2 9.8 1.5 65.5 62.9 8.5 11.0 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 10.9 12.6 9.0 1.8 67.2 64.3 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 11.2 12.8 9.4 1.6 65.6 63.1 8.1 10.5 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 45 55 100 12.8 12.9 8.7 1.8 67.4 64.9 8.2 10.5 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 11.2 12.6 9.0 1.7 65.8 63.2 8.3 10.5 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 11.9 13.1 9.9 1.3 63.0 60.3 8.4 11.1 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 10.7 10.2 8.9 1.1 63.7 62.2 7.1 8.8 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 11.7 13.2 8.9 1.6 65.5 63.0 8.8 11.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 9.7 9.8 9.3 0.5 55.5 55.1 7.0 9.1 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 11.7 11.7 8.7 1.8 67.1 64.0 7.1 9.4 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 10.8 11.0 9.9 0.6 56.7 56.1 7.6 10.0 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 9.5 9.7 7.1 2.0 68.4 65.3 4.8 7.1 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 11.3 12.6 10.2 1.3 64.1 61.8 8.1 10.6 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 10.4 10.4 9.5 0.5 55.7 55.1 7.4 9.7 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 10.8 11.2 10.2 0.8 59.1 57.7 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 12.0 13.3 9.9 1.5 64.6 61.8 8.5 11.1 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 10.2 11.3 9.0 1.2 62.9 60.8 7.5 9.7 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 10.3 11.8 8.2 1.8 68.0 65.5 8.0 9.8 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 11.1 12.0 9.6 1.1 61.6 59.9 8.1 10.5 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 11.2 11.0 8.4 1.5 65.8 63.6 7.2 9.2 11.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 7.5 9.1 8.1 1.8 66.4 63.5 4.3 6.7 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 10.3 10.5 9.8 0.6 56.5 56.0 7.4 9.7 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------