***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.11.2016.-27.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 10.9 10.5 9.2 1.3 65.7 62.8 6.6 8.7 10.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 10.5 9.8 9.0 1.1 62.5 60.2 6.4 8.4 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 11.9 11.4 9.5 1.3 64.8 62.1 7.5 9.6 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 4.5 5.5 6.5 1.1 63.9 61.4 1.4 3.7 5.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 11.8 11.3 7.5 1.3 64.8 61.8 7.5 9.5 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 10.9 10.5 7.3 1.5 66.4 62.9 6.7 8.6 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.9 9.6 9.0 1.1 63.0 60.4 6.3 8.2 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 4.6 4.2 7.1 1.4 65.1 61.7 0.9 2.6 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 12.7 12.3 8.4 1.5 66.0 62.5 8.1 10.3 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 11.5 11.1 7.8 1.5 66.0 62.3 7.2 9.2 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 12.2 11.6 7.6 1.3 64.0 61.1 7.6 9.8 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 11.9 11.1 7.2 1.1 62.5 60.1 7.6 9.7 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 12.2 11.5 7.1 1.2 63.4 60.8 7.7 9.9 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.1 12.1 8.8 1.4 63.9 60.6 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 7.9 8.8 7.2 1.0 63.2 61.0 5.3 7.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 12.6 11.9 7.3 1.2 63.6 60.8 8.2 10.3 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.6 9.1 8.9 1.0 62.2 59.7 5.9 7.8 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 9.4 9.2 7.9 1.6 66.7 62.5 5.8 7.5 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 11.0 10.2 9.2 1.1 62.5 60.3 6.5 8.6 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 8.7 8.4 6.2 1.6 67.8 63.2 4.4 6.3 8.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 12.1 11.7 8.9 1.4 66.0 62.8 7.7 9.8 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.9 9.8 8.8 1.0 62.0 59.5 6.2 8.3 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 10.8 10.0 9.4 1.1 62.9 60.4 6.4 8.5 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.2 12.2 8.7 1.5 65.4 61.8 8.1 10.3 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 10.9 10.5 7.7 1.4 66.3 63.3 6.9 8.7 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 11.0 10.4 6.9 1.1 63.7 61.4 7.2 9.0 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 12.0 11.6 8.8 1.4 66.5 63.3 7.7 9.7 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.9 9.8 6.9 1.1 63.5 61.0 5.9 8.1 10.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 8.6 8.3 7.4 1.6 66.7 62.7 4.2 6.3 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 10.5 9.8 9.1 1.1 63.3 60.8 6.5 8.4 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------