***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.11.2016.-04.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 5.4 7.8 6.8 0.4 54.7 54.7 5.8 7.4 8.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.8 6.7 6.4 0.1 51.1 52.1 5.2 6.7 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 5.9 8.2 7.0 0.3 53.3 53.8 6.4 7.9 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -0.2 2.3 4.1 0.3 53.5 53.8 0.2 2.0 3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 5.8 8.1 5.1 0.3 53.5 53.6 6.1 7.8 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.0 8.4 5.0 0.9 60.2 58.2 5.8 7.4 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 4.7 6.7 6.4 0.2 52.0 52.5 5.1 6.6 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 2.6 2.5 4.7 0.5 56.1 55.1 0.5 2.0 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 6.5 8.9 5.9 0.4 54.6 54.5 6.8 8.5 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.3 5.3 0.5 55.8 55.1 6.2 7.8 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.3 5.1 0.3 53.7 53.4 6.2 7.9 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.5 4.9 0.4 55.0 54.1 6.3 8.1 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 8.7 8.9 4.9 0.7 58.3 56.5 6.2 8.0 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 6.3 8.6 6.1 0.4 54.2 53.7 6.7 8.3 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 4.7 6.5 5.0 0.3 53.7 54.5 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.2 4.9 0.5 55.5 54.4 6.9 8.7 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.2 5.9 6.2 0.0 50.4 51.4 4.5 5.9 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.3 5.3 0.6 57.0 55.9 4.5 5.8 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.9 7.0 6.6 0.1 51.1 52.2 5.4 6.9 8.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.9 4.1 1.0 60.9 58.6 3.0 4.8 6.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 6.0 8.4 6.4 0.3 54.1 54.4 6.4 8.0 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.9 6.5 6.1 0.0 49.8 51.0 5.2 6.5 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 5.3 7.3 6.8 0.2 51.9 52.5 5.8 7.2 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 6.9 9.1 6.0 0.4 54.7 54.4 7.2 8.7 10.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.1 7.3 5.4 0.5 56.0 55.6 5.4 6.8 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.6 8.9 4.9 0.8 59.9 57.9 6.5 8.0 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 6.0 8.5 6.4 0.5 56.1 55.5 6.3 7.9 9.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 4.9 7.0 4.5 0.3 53.3 53.6 5.2 6.7 8.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.7 4.9 0.8 58.2 56.7 3.3 4.9 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 4.9 7.1 6.5 0.2 52.2 53.0 5.4 6.9 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------