***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-04.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 10.1 9.6 8.9 0.0 50.0 50.4 8.1 9.6 11.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 9.4 8.2 8.4 -0.5 41.0 43.6 7.5 8.9 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 10.5 9.9 9.1 -0.1 48.1 48.9 8.6 10.1 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 4.5 4.6 6.5 0.4 56.2 55.3 2.6 4.1 5.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.5 10.5 7.7 0.4 56.2 55.4 8.5 10.0 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 9.8 10.8 7.5 1.2 67.0 64.3 7.9 9.4 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.4 8.1 8.4 -0.5 41.6 44.0 7.4 8.8 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 3.3 3.6 7.1 0.6 59.8 58.5 1.8 2.9 4.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.1 11.1 8.4 0.4 55.8 55.3 9.1 10.6 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 10.3 10.4 7.7 0.5 57.6 56.8 8.3 9.8 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.9 8.0 0.5 57.6 56.6 8.6 10.2 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 10.5 10.9 7.5 0.6 59.7 58.3 8.6 10.1 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 10.6 11.1 7.9 0.8 61.1 59.5 8.6 10.1 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 11.1 10.3 8.2 -0.2 47.4 48.4 9.0 10.5 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 8.6 8.6 7.8 0.3 55.5 54.7 7.0 8.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.6 7.8 0.7 59.9 58.3 9.1 10.7 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 6.7 7.5 8.1 -0.6 39.1 42.0 7.0 8.3 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 8.8 8.9 7.4 0.5 56.8 56.1 7.1 8.4 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.8 8.6 8.6 -0.5 41.9 44.2 7.8 9.3 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 7.5 7.9 6.0 0.7 60.6 59.1 5.6 7.0 8.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 10.7 10.4 8.9 0.2 53.1 52.9 8.7 10.2 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 7.3 8.0 8.1 -0.6 38.9 41.7 7.5 8.9 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 9.8 8.8 8.9 -0.3 44.2 46.1 7.9 9.3 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.5 11.1 8.4 0.1 51.5 51.8 9.5 11.0 12.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 9.6 9.4 7.8 0.2 53.8 53.4 7.7 9.1 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 10.0 10.7 7.4 0.9 64.5 62.5 8.3 9.6 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 10.5 10.1 8.5 0.1 51.7 51.7 8.5 10.0 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 9.1 9.3 7.2 0.5 58.2 56.9 7.5 8.7 9.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.2 6.9 0.5 57.0 56.1 5.2 6.6 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.5 8.5 8.6 -0.4 43.2 45.2 7.6 9.0 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------