***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.11.2016.-20.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 14.1 16.7 16.6 141.4 75.7 60.3 3.5 7.0 12.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 15.6 21.6 15.8 162.9 80.5 64.4 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 19.9 24.2 16.8 143.3 76.1 61.8 5.0 10.0 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 15.9 20.8 16.4 110.9 67.5 52.9 6.1 11.9 20.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 13.4 18.3 16.4 112.4 67.4 54.4 4.9 10.0 17.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 17.0 16.2 12.5 87.9 57.9 46.1 6.5 12.5 20.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 13.0 18.2 16.1 169.5 81.6 64.7 3.6 6.8 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 20.1 22.7 15.2 101.0 63.0 50.6 7.1 14.4 25.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.0 18.8 15.9 114.7 68.0 52.7 5.5 10.6 17.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.5 19.1 15.8 106.2 64.8 51.4 5.5 11.4 19.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 14.8 20.2 16.7 111.4 66.8 55.0 5.8 11.4 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 17.2 21.0 14.8 105.0 64.5 52.2 5.8 12.3 22.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 16.8 21.9 15.8 107.5 66.2 54.7 6.0 12.4 21.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.2 25.0 18.2 124.9 70.8 56.2 6.4 12.6 21.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 5.2 20.4 15.1 108.5 67.1 50.9 4.2 10.2 19.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.8 16.8 14.5 99.8 62.8 49.9 5.4 10.8 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 13.0 17.9 15.5 162.1 80.1 63.0 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.1 19.9 15.7 102.8 63.5 49.6 6.1 12.3 21.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 17.1 23.0 15.8 156.6 79.3 63.9 4.2 8.4 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 17.9 25.1 21.8 115.1 67.6 56.0 6.4 13.2 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 14.0 19.9 16.2 120.6 69.9 55.4 5.2 10.2 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 14.2 18.9 15.8 153.0 78.2 62.9 3.4 7.0 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 16.3 20.0 16.1 143.7 76.4 61.4 4.1 8.2 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.5 20.1 16.6 119.4 69.0 54.2 5.5 10.7 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 16.4 18.0 18.8 131.6 73.2 59.9 4.7 8.8 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 16.4 17.3 13.5 91.9 60.1 49.6 6.1 12.3 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 16.9 19.7 18.1 143.8 76.2 61.7 4.7 8.7 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 5.4 18.7 14.8 105.8 65.9 50.1 4.6 10.1 18.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 23.3 27.2 17.4 105.4 64.2 51.3 9.0 17.3 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 15.3 21.0 16.5 163.9 80.7 64.4 3.7 7.4 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------