***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.11.2016.-27.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.7 8.2 12.0 82.4 56.8 46.0 3.2 6.5 11.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.5 7.7 10.2 78.5 55.0 42.9 3.4 6.6 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.6 8.3 11.6 78.4 55.1 43.9 3.3 6.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.5 10.5 12.9 84.2 57.3 43.6 4.1 8.3 14.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.7 8.1 13.1 80.3 55.5 42.9 3.1 6.6 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.2 10.4 12.0 88.9 58.6 44.5 3.4 7.5 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.1 7.6 10.2 79.2 54.9 42.7 3.0 6.2 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.4 14.4 13.3 81.5 55.7 42.8 6.1 11.8 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.2 7.2 14.0 80.1 54.6 42.7 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.8 8.7 14.1 81.3 55.0 43.1 3.5 7.2 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.0 9.3 12.5 81.0 55.4 42.6 3.5 7.5 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.4 10.5 12.0 81.8 56.0 42.7 3.9 8.4 14.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.2 11.4 12.8 89.1 58.8 45.2 3.7 8.1 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.2 13.7 14.8 82.2 55.6 43.8 5.8 11.2 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.1 11.9 13.8 91.7 61.6 45.5 3.4 7.6 14.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.1 8.1 11.7 80.5 55.3 40.9 2.6 6.3 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.4 8.1 9.6 79.2 55.4 43.2 3.4 6.8 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.3 10.6 14.7 80.3 54.1 42.7 5.1 9.3 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.9 9.2 10.6 79.2 55.4 43.2 3.7 7.5 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 6.6 12.9 17.2 81.7 54.9 43.2 5.8 11.1 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.7 7.5 13.0 80.3 55.2 43.7 3.3 6.3 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 5.3 11.8 10.2 81.6 56.0 43.6 5.8 9.9 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.9 8.8 11.5 79.9 55.5 43.2 3.8 7.3 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.6 11.3 13.3 77.7 54.0 42.8 5.1 9.9 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.0 13.5 85.9 57.9 46.7 3.5 6.4 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.9 9.4 12.1 80.9 55.7 42.3 3.4 7.5 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.0 8.9 12.5 84.8 57.3 46.6 3.4 6.9 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.9 9.8 12.2 84.8 58.2 43.2 3.4 7.2 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.3 17.8 15.7 81.2 54.4 43.1 7.8 15.1 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.9 8.4 10.6 77.7 54.6 42.9 3.8 7.3 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------