***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.11.2016.-04.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 3.8 11.4 11.1 101.0 63.1 48.2 4.1 7.6 12.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.2 8.7 9.4 95.8 63.0 48.6 2.9 5.6 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 3.4 11.5 10.8 99.5 62.7 47.9 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 5.8 15.2 12.0 96.8 61.9 46.9 6.0 10.7 17.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.8 10.7 11.9 90.9 58.4 44.4 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 9.2 8.8 11.9 88.9 58.6 46.8 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.6 9.3 9.1 95.0 63.0 47.8 3.7 6.4 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.4 13.0 90.5 58.8 46.2 6.2 11.1 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.2 9.4 12.4 92.9 58.6 45.2 3.2 6.9 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.4 11.1 13.1 92.5 58.6 45.9 4.1 8.2 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.3 10.8 11.7 88.1 57.6 44.4 3.7 8.0 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.0 13.1 11.7 87.3 57.8 45.4 4.3 9.5 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.7 12.3 88.8 57.6 46.0 4.8 9.1 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.3 10.7 12.4 91.2 58.7 47.5 4.3 8.1 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 5.6 21.4 12.5 106.2 66.3 51.1 5.1 11.5 21.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.2 10.1 11.4 86.0 56.9 44.5 3.8 7.8 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.7 9.9 8.9 93.5 62.8 47.4 3.3 6.5 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.4 11.5 14.0 98.1 60.8 47.9 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.1 9.3 9.6 95.4 62.2 48.0 3.0 6.1 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.7 13.6 17.9 101.8 62.9 48.7 3.8 8.3 15.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 4.3 11.6 11.5 96.0 60.3 46.1 4.5 8.5 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.1 9.4 9.6 92.8 61.7 46.3 2.7 6.0 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 2.7 8.0 10.0 91.2 59.3 46.7 2.6 5.7 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.5 11.4 12.3 96.2 60.5 48.3 4.6 8.3 13.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.3 9.4 12.0 96.7 61.1 47.4 3.1 6.4 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.8 12.5 92.3 60.3 47.8 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.7 10.8 11.4 98.1 62.1 48.1 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 4.9 14.3 11.5 95.2 61.8 47.3 4.7 9.4 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 5.3 15.4 15.5 102.9 62.8 49.0 4.6 9.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.3 9.4 9.9 97.4 63.2 48.7 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------