***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.11.2016.-04.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 58.1 68.2 72.2 142.5 79.3 73.0 28.0 39.5 52.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 57.4 69.2 64.7 147.5 80.7 73.2 27.2 38.6 51.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 66.0 77.1 69.8 139.7 78.4 71.4 33.6 46.5 61.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 75.7 80.9 77.1 127.5 72.9 66.3 40.4 55.0 71.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 63.6 67.3 73.7 123.3 71.2 64.5 32.1 45.5 61.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 64.0 68.8 72.1 124.5 71.9 65.9 32.0 45.5 61.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 54.4 64.5 63.7 146.3 80.4 72.3 27.7 37.9 49.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 73.3 92.7 76.1 119.0 69.1 62.5 46.9 65.8 87.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 60.1 62.6 72.9 122.1 70.9 63.8 30.3 42.6 57.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 54.8 66.9 73.9 115.8 67.6 60.9 35.8 49.4 64.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 53.4 70.1 71.1 117.9 68.4 61.8 30.7 47.0 66.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 61.1 82.7 72.0 121.6 70.4 63.5 35.4 53.6 75.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 55.9 77.4 75.6 121.6 70.5 64.1 30.9 48.3 69.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 79.3 88.4 82.1 131.3 76.3 68.1 43.6 58.2 74.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 84.1 88.6 76.4 128.1 72.4 66.0 39.3 57.2 78.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 52.1 70.0 73.2 122.7 70.9 63.9 30.8 45.5 63.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 58.4 69.6 61.4 144.5 79.4 72.2 29.2 40.8 53.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 58.4 73.3 77.5 118.3 69.4 61.9 37.7 52.3 69.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 63.0 75.6 66.4 146.6 80.8 73.3 31.8 43.9 57.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 85.9 94.2 99.3 126.2 73.3 65.7 40.7 59.4 81.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 61.0 66.9 72.5 129.1 74.1 67.3 30.5 43.1 57.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 64.1 75.6 65.0 142.6 79.2 72.8 32.9 45.3 59.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 58.5 70.1 69.9 142.9 80.3 72.4 31.6 42.3 54.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 70.0 77.0 74.6 126.5 73.4 65.7 35.1 49.8 66.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 57.0 64.1 78.6 134.6 75.9 70.3 25.5 37.4 52.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 70.4 81.3 81.0 132.1 75.1 69.4 31.5 47.3 66.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 58.5 67.5 74.8 140.2 78.2 72.5 28.1 39.8 53.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 70.1 73.0 72.8 124.3 71.4 64.4 34.8 49.1 66.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 84.2 108.9 84.3 121.2 71.3 63.4 55.1 75.7 99.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 57.1 68.1 66.8 146.5 80.5 73.0 27.9 38.9 51.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------