***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2015.-15.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 4.8 4.7 6.5 2.0 70.1 69.6 1.8 3.1 4.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 4.6 5.0 6.9 2.9 80.0 79.1 1.0 2.4 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 6.6 6.7 7.0 2.6 77.6 76.9 3.1 4.4 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 2.0 4.0 6.1 4.3 90.8 89.6 -2.2 -0.7 0.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 4.1 4.6 5.6 3.2 81.9 81.1 0.5 1.8 3.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 3.7 4.7 3.9 3.6 85.1 84.3 -0.3 1.2 2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 4.4 4.6 6.8 2.8 78.1 77.2 0.9 2.3 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 -0.2 0.9 4.4 3.9 86.3 85.6 -4.1 -2.7 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 4.8 5.2 5.7 3.0 81.2 80.4 1.2 2.5 3.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 4.2 5.0 5.0 3.6 84.7 84.0 0.7 2.0 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 4.2 5.0 5.3 3.5 84.4 83.7 0.2 1.7 3.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 3.3 3.9 4.6 3.4 82.3 81.7 -0.5 0.9 2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 3.9 4.0 3.9 2.8 77.7 77.3 -0.1 1.4 2.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 4.7 5.2 6.0 3.2 83.8 83.1 2.0 3.0 4.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 4.2 5.6 6.8 3.6 87.8 86.6 0.3 1.7 3.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 4.9 5.3 4.5 3.2 81.0 80.4 1.0 2.5 3.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 3 97 100 4.2 5.0 7.1 3.4 85.1 84.0 1.0 2.2 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 2.4 3.0 4.5 3.7 85.4 84.8 -0.5 0.6 1.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 4.6 4.9 6.9 2.8 80.5 79.7 1.2 2.5 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 0.9 1.8 2.9 3.7 84.2 83.6 -3.9 -2.2 -0.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 4.8 4.9 6.7 2.8 78.7 78.0 1.2 2.5 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 3.9 4.5 7.0 3.0 84.2 83.2 0.8 1.9 3.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 4.2 4.6 6.9 2.9 81.7 81.0 1.4 2.4 3.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 3.6 4.1 5.9 3.3 83.7 83.0 0.7 1.7 2.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 4.4 4.6 6.3 2.6 76.3 75.6 1.3 2.5 3.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 4.0 4.5 4.2 3.3 81.4 80.6 0.1 1.6 2.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 5.0 4.9 6.0 2.1 70.7 70.2 1.6 3.1 4.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 3.4 5.3 6.3 4.2 89.9 88.8 -0.9 0.7 2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 2.8 3.4 3.4 3.3 81.4 80.8 -1.2 0.3 1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 5.0 5.1 6.9 2.6 76.9 76.2 1.4 2.8 4.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------