***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2015.-15.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 14.5 15.4 13.9 3.1 82.0 80.8 9.7 11.6 13.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 13.4 14.6 14.1 3.4 84.8 83.6 8.6 10.4 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 15.1 16.6 14.5 3.7 86.0 84.9 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 9.1 11.5 12.7 4.5 91.1 89.9 4.0 5.8 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 15.3 17.1 13.6 4.3 88.2 87.1 10.1 12.0 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 14.5 16.5 12.4 4.4 88.1 86.2 9.2 11.2 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 13.2 14.1 13.7 3.2 82.6 81.4 8.5 10.3 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 6.9 9.9 13.8 5.8 95.0 93.8 2.8 4.3 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 15.7 18.0 14.7 4.6 90.3 89.3 10.4 12.3 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 14.6 17.5 14.3 5.4 93.0 91.9 9.8 11.5 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 15.6 17.7 13.8 4.6 89.5 88.3 10.2 12.2 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 15.1 18.0 13.8 5.2 92.8 91.5 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 7 93 100 15.1 16.9 13.3 4.2 87.3 85.6 10.0 11.9 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 15.8 18.7 15.0 4.8 91.7 90.9 10.2 12.2 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 12.6 14.9 14.5 4.7 92.5 91.3 8.3 9.8 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 15.9 17.5 13.1 4.1 86.5 85.1 10.5 12.5 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 3 97 100 12.8 14.1 13.8 3.5 86.4 85.4 8.2 9.9 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 13.5 16.5 14.1 5.6 93.9 92.9 8.8 10.5 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 14.1 15.5 14.4 3.6 86.2 85.1 9.1 11.0 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 12.1 16.3 13.0 6.3 96.5 95.3 7.2 9.0 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 15.3 17.0 14.8 4.1 87.9 86.8 10.0 11.9 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 13.7 15.5 14.1 3.6 88.2 87.1 8.8 10.6 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 14.2 16.0 14.7 4.0 88.5 87.6 9.1 11.0 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 16.1 18.7 14.8 4.8 91.1 90.2 10.6 12.6 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 14.1 15.3 13.3 3.5 85.1 83.7 8.9 10.8 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 14.1 16.6 13.1 4.9 92.5 90.8 9.6 11.2 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 14.6 15.5 13.4 3.1 81.7 80.4 9.6 11.5 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 12.2 13.9 13.7 4.6 91.0 89.8 8.8 10.0 11.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 11.6 15.3 13.7 6.0 95.1 94.1 6.6 8.4 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 6 94 100 13.5 14.6 14.1 3.4 83.8 82.7 8.8 10.6 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------