***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2015.-22.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 10.8 11.6 10.3 1.0 61.9 59.4 7.8 10.0 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 11.5 10.9 10.3 1.2 64.0 61.0 7.2 9.2 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 12.6 12.0 10.5 1.2 63.9 60.9 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 5.2 6.3 8.2 1.2 63.6 61.1 2.0 4.4 6.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.8 11.8 8.7 1.2 63.6 61.0 7.7 10.0 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.6 7.6 0.8 58.8 57.5 7.2 9.4 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.5 10.1 1.0 62.2 59.6 7.0 9.1 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 4.7 4.1 8.0 1.3 64.6 61.8 0.7 2.6 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 13.2 12.6 9.5 1.3 64.0 61.1 8.2 10.6 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 12.4 11.8 8.7 1.3 64.1 61.3 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 12.8 12.1 8.5 1.2 63.2 60.8 7.8 10.3 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 12.7 11.9 8.2 1.1 62.7 60.5 7.8 10.1 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.0 11.5 7.8 0.8 59.4 58.1 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 13.4 12.7 9.9 1.3 63.6 60.6 8.1 10.7 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 9.1 10.0 8.5 1.2 64.1 61.7 6.6 8.5 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.6 12.2 8.1 1.0 60.9 59.2 8.5 10.8 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.3 10.1 10.0 1.1 63.3 60.6 6.7 8.6 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 11.1 10.4 8.6 1.3 63.8 60.9 6.5 8.7 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 11.9 11.3 10.6 1.3 64.8 61.6 7.2 9.4 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 9.4 8.7 6.9 1.4 64.9 61.9 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.1 12.1 10.0 1.2 63.5 60.8 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 9.9 10.9 10.2 1.2 64.3 61.3 7.0 9.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 11.7 11.4 10.7 1.3 65.1 61.6 7.3 9.5 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 13.3 12.7 9.8 1.3 63.9 60.8 8.4 10.8 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 10.1 10.9 8.9 1.1 62.7 60.1 7.3 9.4 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.7 7.6 0.8 60.0 58.7 7.6 9.6 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 10.9 11.6 9.6 1.0 61.5 59.0 8.0 10.2 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 9.9 10.9 8.4 1.2 63.1 60.9 7.0 9.2 11.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 9.3 8.4 8.0 1.3 63.7 61.0 4.1 6.5 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 11.5 10.9 10.4 1.1 63.5 60.6 7.2 9.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------