***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2015.-29.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 10.5 9.6 8.5 1.1 62.2 60.2 6.4 8.3 10.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 10.2 9.6 8.6 1.4 64.8 62.2 6.3 8.1 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 11.7 10.9 8.7 1.3 64.3 61.7 7.3 9.3 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 5.4 4.6 6.4 1.1 63.4 60.9 1.1 3.1 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 11.5 10.7 6.8 1.1 63.2 60.9 7.2 9.2 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 10.4 9.4 5.9 0.8 60.0 59.4 6.5 8.3 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 9.9 9.3 8.4 1.3 63.9 61.7 6.1 7.9 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 4.5 3.8 6.3 1.2 64.7 62.8 0.8 2.4 3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 12.4 11.5 7.6 1.2 63.4 61.1 7.9 9.9 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 11.3 10.5 6.9 1.3 64.4 62.2 7.0 8.9 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 11.9 11.0 6.7 1.1 63.4 61.5 7.2 9.3 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 11.7 10.8 6.6 1.1 63.2 61.8 7.4 9.3 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 11.8 10.6 6.1 0.8 60.5 60.0 7.3 9.4 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 12.4 11.7 8.2 1.6 65.9 62.9 7.5 9.7 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 9.2 8.7 6.7 1.2 64.1 61.4 5.4 7.2 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 12.2 11.3 6.3 1.0 61.9 60.4 7.9 9.9 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 9.5 9.0 8.3 1.3 64.5 62.0 5.7 7.5 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 9.1 8.4 6.9 1.4 65.3 62.7 5.3 7.0 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 10.7 10.2 8.8 1.4 65.3 62.6 6.6 8.5 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 8.5 7.6 5.2 1.3 64.8 62.6 4.1 6.0 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 11.7 10.9 8.1 1.2 63.0 60.7 7.4 9.4 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 10.3 9.8 8.5 1.4 64.6 62.0 6.2 8.1 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 10.6 10.0 9.0 1.5 66.1 63.0 6.4 8.3 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 12.5 11.7 8.1 1.5 65.7 62.7 7.8 9.8 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 10.4 9.7 7.0 1.1 62.5 60.4 6.6 8.4 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 10.8 9.6 5.9 0.7 59.2 59.6 7.0 8.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 11.4 10.6 7.8 1.0 62.0 60.1 7.4 9.3 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 9.9 9.3 6.6 1.2 63.7 61.0 5.9 7.8 9.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 8.5 7.6 6.3 1.4 65.0 62.5 3.8 5.9 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 10.1 9.5 8.6 1.3 64.3 61.8 6.3 8.0 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------