***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2015.-06.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 10.9 11.3 9.9 1.5 73.8 70.4 7.7 9.2 10.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 10.2 10.7 10.0 1.7 76.2 72.7 7.0 8.4 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 11.6 12.1 10.2 1.8 76.7 72.9 8.2 9.6 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 5.8 6.4 8.0 1.9 78.2 74.4 2.4 3.8 5.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 11.5 12.1 8.6 1.9 77.1 73.3 8.1 9.6 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 10.7 11.2 7.6 1.6 74.8 70.8 7.5 9.0 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 10.0 10.4 9.7 1.5 74.4 71.2 6.9 8.3 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 4.4 5.3 8.2 2.3 83.1 78.2 1.7 2.8 3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 12.2 12.9 9.5 2.0 78.3 74.3 8.7 10.2 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 11.4 12.3 8.8 2.2 81.0 76.5 7.9 9.4 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 11.9 12.5 8.5 1.9 78.1 74.1 8.2 9.8 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 11.8 12.6 8.4 2.0 80.3 75.9 8.2 9.7 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 11.4 12.1 8.0 1.6 75.2 71.3 8.2 9.7 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 12.2 13.0 9.9 2.2 79.9 75.5 8.5 10.1 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 9.6 10.2 8.7 1.9 79.2 75.4 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 12.0 12.7 8.1 1.7 75.2 71.5 8.7 10.3 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 9.6 10.0 9.7 1.7 76.1 72.6 6.5 7.8 9.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 9.6 10.5 8.8 2.4 81.8 77.0 6.7 7.9 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 10.7 11.2 10.2 1.8 77.2 73.6 7.3 8.8 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 8.8 10.2 7.2 2.5 85.1 79.6 5.2 6.7 8.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 11.7 12.2 9.9 1.8 77.0 73.1 8.2 9.7 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 10.3 10.8 9.9 1.8 77.0 73.4 7.0 8.4 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 10.8 11.4 10.4 2.0 78.6 74.6 7.4 8.8 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 12.5 13.4 9.8 2.2 79.7 75.3 9.1 10.6 12.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 10.4 10.9 8.7 1.6 75.5 71.8 7.3 8.7 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 10.9 11.6 7.8 1.8 78.7 74.2 7.9 9.2 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 11.2 11.6 9.3 1.5 73.6 70.2 8.1 9.5 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 10.1 10.7 8.4 1.9 77.9 74.2 7.1 8.4 9.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 8.3 9.5 8.2 2.4 83.0 77.8 4.9 6.3 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 10.3 10.7 10.0 1.7 75.7 72.2 7.1 8.5 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------