***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2015.-15.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 99 1 0 100 1.7 1.2 1.5 10.9 12.9 11.5 3.9 6.9 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 1.6 0.8 1.2 9.2 10.5 9.5 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 97 3 0 100 1.7 1.1 1.6 10.6 13.1 11.8 4.3 8.5 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 92 8 0 100 2.3 1.4 2.2 13.3 14.0 12.4 4.8 9.3 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 92 8 0 100 2.1 1.4 2.2 13.3 14.3 12.8 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 87 13 0 100 2.2 1.8 2.2 16.1 18.4 15.0 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 97 3 0 100 1.8 1.1 1.3 10.2 11.5 10.3 4.1 7.5 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 95 5 0 100 2.6 1.5 1.7 10.0 12.0 10.7 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 92 8 0 100 1.8 1.3 2.5 15.0 15.0 13.7 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 93 7 0 100 1.5 0.9 2.2 12.5 13.6 12.4 3.5 7.5 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 93 7 0 100 1.5 1.1 1.9 12.3 15.6 13.9 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 93 7 0 100 2.0 1.3 1.7 11.6 14.1 12.5 4.2 8.0 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 1.8 1.2 2.1 14.3 14.8 12.5 4.0 8.0 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 91 9 0 100 2.7 1.6 2.2 11.5 13.1 11.5 5.2 9.8 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 94 6 0 100 1.3 0.7 1.7 11.0 12.3 10.0 3.2 6.7 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 91 9 0 100 1.8 1.2 1.9 13.0 14.6 12.3 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 98 2 0 100 1.6 0.9 1.3 10.0 11.7 10.4 3.9 7.7 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 90 10 0 100 2.0 1.1 2.2 11.3 12.3 11.2 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 98 2 0 100 1.6 0.8 1.3 9.4 10.6 9.7 4.0 7.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 95 5 0 100 2.0 0.8 1.7 7.8 9.0 8.0 4.9 9.6 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 95 5 0 100 1.8 1.3 2.1 13.3 14.0 12.6 4.1 8.0 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 98 2 0 100 1.4 0.8 1.3 9.5 12.0 10.7 3.9 8.2 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 96 4 0 100 1.8 1.0 1.6 10.3 10.8 9.8 4.0 7.3 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 92 8 0 100 2.0 1.1 2.0 11.4 12.7 11.4 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 97 3 0 100 1.3 1.0 2.1 12.7 14.3 12.5 3.4 6.7 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 95 5 0 100 1.5 0.8 1.3 8.7 12.5 10.3 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 98 2 0 100 1.2 0.9 1.9 12.4 13.3 11.9 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 91 9 0 100 1.4 0.7 2.0 13.1 14.3 11.9 3.2 7.1 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 92 8 0 100 3.0 1.4 2.0 10.2 11.7 10.4 5.9 11.3 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 98 2 0 100 1.8 0.9 1.2 9.2 10.3 9.3 4.2 7.7 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------