***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2015.-22.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 4.6 8.6 6.9 63.0 49.5 38.8 5.0 8.6 13.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.7 8.3 7.1 64.5 49.5 40.0 4.3 8.4 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 6.6 11.0 7.6 64.6 50.4 40.0 6.3 10.9 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 6.8 11.1 8.0 59.6 48.0 38.5 6.4 11.9 19.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 5.7 9.9 8.3 62.4 49.3 38.9 5.3 10.1 17.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 6.8 13.0 9.7 69.9 52.6 40.9 6.2 11.9 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 4.9 8.8 7.2 67.3 50.0 40.3 5.2 8.8 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 9.0 17.5 9.9 70.5 51.9 40.4 8.2 16.2 27.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.9 9.5 8.9 66.1 50.6 39.8 4.5 9.3 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 15.4 12.0 10.0 70.3 51.8 40.7 6.0 11.3 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 6.6 11.8 8.3 66.0 50.6 39.3 6.0 11.6 19.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 5.7 11.8 8.5 67.6 50.8 39.2 4.8 11.3 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 5.9 11.2 8.6 64.2 49.4 38.2 5.4 11.6 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 8.8 15.7 10.6 72.2 52.4 42.5 8.4 14.7 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 6.2 9.5 7.8 55.3 46.1 36.7 5.1 11.3 21.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 5.9 10.7 8.1 62.8 48.9 38.0 5.6 11.2 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 5.5 8.7 6.9 61.7 47.2 37.9 5.6 9.5 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 16.9 14.0 11.7 73.8 53.3 42.4 6.1 12.3 21.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.8 9.7 7.2 63.6 49.7 40.1 5.2 9.8 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.1 13.3 13.5 69.6 50.6 40.5 5.8 13.0 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 5.6 10.0 7.9 64.0 49.7 39.1 5.6 10.1 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.7 8.8 7.3 60.5 47.2 38.7 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 5.8 9.9 7.9 65.2 50.6 41.0 5.4 9.7 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.8 12.3 10.3 71.8 53.2 42.1 5.8 11.0 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.3 7.8 7.9 60.0 48.7 39.2 4.4 8.1 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 6.6 12.5 8.7 65.6 50.1 38.7 6.0 12.5 21.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 4.3 8.1 7.7 62.9 49.5 39.8 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 4.9 8.5 8.0 59.0 47.7 37.7 4.4 9.4 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 25.3 20.5 12.7 73.9 53.1 42.2 9.6 18.4 31.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 5.1 8.9 7.2 65.6 50.4 40.6 4.8 8.8 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------