***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2015.-29.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 2.5 6.5 10.0 82.7 55.3 39.1 2.8 5.5 9.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 2.3 6.8 10.2 89.8 59.2 42.7 2.6 5.0 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 2.7 6.4 10.0 78.1 52.4 38.5 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 4.6 9.3 11.1 80.2 54.2 40.4 4.9 8.3 12.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.3 7.2 11.1 79.6 53.7 40.8 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.3 7.0 10.6 73.2 51.4 39.1 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.2 6.5 10.3 92.2 60.3 43.1 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 5.2 10.6 11.9 76.8 53.4 42.2 5.2 9.7 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.9 6.1 11.5 79.5 52.7 40.6 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.4 7.1 11.9 77.3 52.6 41.6 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 3.7 8.0 10.4 79.5 54.4 41.5 3.8 7.0 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 3.8 8.2 10.4 77.3 53.0 40.7 4.0 7.5 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 3.4 7.5 10.4 75.5 51.1 39.1 3.5 7.3 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.4 9.4 11.9 75.1 52.6 40.2 4.4 8.6 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 3.5 9.0 11.2 79.5 54.6 39.5 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 2.8 6.6 9.9 76.6 52.4 39.7 2.8 6.1 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 2.7 7.8 10.6 99.3 62.8 45.2 3.1 5.4 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.6 8.4 12.6 74.1 51.1 40.8 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 2.8 7.8 10.2 86.0 57.3 41.7 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.6 9.5 15.6 75.9 52.7 42.6 4.4 8.7 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.1 6.3 10.7 80.4 53.0 39.2 3.2 5.8 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 3.5 9.8 11.1 96.2 61.0 45.3 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 2.3 6.6 10.4 80.7 54.8 40.1 2.6 5.4 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.5 8.5 11.4 74.0 51.3 39.6 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.0 7.2 11.9 84.3 55.7 40.4 3.3 6.0 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.0 6.4 10.1 73.1 51.3 40.0 3.2 6.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 2.6 7.5 11.4 85.5 56.7 40.7 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 3.3 7.5 10.4 76.1 52.5 39.6 3.7 6.8 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.1 11.8 13.5 73.7 51.4 41.5 5.6 11.3 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 2.4 6.8 10.0 85.1 56.9 41.0 2.6 5.2 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------