***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2015.-06.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.7 12.3 9.7 99.2 63.4 50.1 3.9 7.8 13.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.4 10.4 10.0 106.8 66.0 51.9 3.0 6.0 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.7 13.9 10.1 103.1 64.5 52.0 4.2 8.4 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.5 14.1 10.8 94.3 60.6 47.1 5.7 10.2 16.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 4.8 12.4 10.7 94.7 60.5 47.9 4.5 8.8 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.5 10.3 11.5 98.1 62.5 49.2 3.1 6.5 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.7 10.5 10.0 105.8 66.0 51.5 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 7.0 17.7 11.1 99.3 62.8 50.3 6.7 12.2 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.8 10.3 11.0 93.9 60.2 48.8 3.2 7.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.2 13.6 11.3 96.4 61.5 50.0 4.7 9.2 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.4 13.5 9.8 96.3 62.0 49.3 3.9 8.5 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 5.3 16.6 9.8 98.9 62.9 49.6 4.9 10.4 18.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.9 13.8 10.8 97.5 61.9 48.9 4.6 9.2 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.8 14.6 12.3 100.6 62.7 51.6 5.7 10.0 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.9 10.4 89.9 60.3 46.0 3.6 9.2 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.3 12.2 9.9 96.1 61.9 49.0 3.7 7.9 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.4 12.0 10.4 112.8 67.8 52.5 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.0 14.0 12.6 98.4 61.8 50.2 5.4 9.8 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.2 11.1 9.9 105.2 65.3 51.9 3.8 7.0 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.6 14.7 14.2 98.0 62.0 50.3 5.0 9.8 16.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.5 11.6 10.4 95.4 61.0 49.1 3.9 7.9 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.3 11.9 10.2 108.4 66.3 52.4 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.7 10.1 10.3 101.9 63.9 51.9 3.7 6.7 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.4 14.1 12.0 102.1 63.5 51.9 4.8 9.2 15.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.1 9.7 11.0 94.2 61.2 49.1 3.8 7.0 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.5 11.5 10.8 98.9 63.0 49.6 3.2 7.0 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.7 11.2 10.4 95.2 61.8 49.5 4.4 7.9 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.9 12.4 10.3 92.7 60.8 46.7 3.5 8.1 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.5 18.3 13.3 97.7 61.4 49.8 6.8 12.7 21.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 9.1 10.8 9.7 103.7 65.1 51.6 3.7 6.8 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------